Modern Australian

Labor maintains its lead in Newspoll, while One Nation drops; NSW upper house finalised

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
Labor maintains its lead in Newspoll, while One Nation drops; NSW upper house finalised

With five weeks until the May 18 election, this week’s Newspoll, conducted April 11-14 from a sample of 1,700 people, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 39% Labor (up two), 9% Greens (steady) and 4% One Nation (down two) - One Nation’s lowest primary vote since November 2016.

While the two-party figure was unchanged, this poll is better for Labor than last week’s Newspoll, with Labor gaining two points in primary votes from One Nation’s drop. If we assess this poll as total right-wing vs total left-wing vote, the left (Labor and Greens) gained two points to stand at 48%, while the right (Coalition and One Nation) lost one point to fall to 43%. Analyst Kevin Bonham said this Newspoll was probably rounded towards the Coalition.

One Nation’s drop is likely the result of increased polarisation between the major parties. If One Nation had been affected by the NRA donations scandal, it would have shown up in last week’s polls.

Nominations for the federal election will be declared on April 24. It is unlikely that One Nation will contest the vast majority of lower house seats. Polling conducted after April 24 is likely to greatly reduce One Nation’s vote as they will no longer be an option for most Australians in the lower house. This reduction of One Nation’s vote may assist the Coalition on primary votes.

In the Newspoll, 45% of respondents were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (steady), and 44% were dissatisfied (up one), for a net approval of +1. Labor leader Bill Shorten’s net approval was steady at -14. Morrison led Shorten by an unchanged 46-35 as better PM.

Since Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as prime minister in August 2018, the Coalition has recovered from a 56-44 deficit in Newspoll to 52-48 this week, due partly to the time that’s passed since the spill and partly to the relative popularity of Morrison.

Now that the election campaign is formally under way, some attention will shift to the opposition’s policies and proposals. The danger for Labor is the Coalition can scare voters about its economic policies, but the potential reward is that Labor can appeal to voters who are frustrated by the Coalition’s perceived inaction on climate change and low wage growth.

Read more: Post-budget poll wrap: Coalition gets a bounce in Newspoll, but not in Ipsos or Essential

Large difference in voting intentions by age group

Every three months, Newspoll aggregates all the polls it conducted from that time period to get voting intention breakdowns by state, age, gender and region (the five capital cities vs the rest of Australia). For January to March, the overall result was 53-47 to Labor, a point better for Labor than the last two Newspolls.

This three-month Newspoll showed a large difference in voting intentions by age group. Among those aged 18-34, Labor had 46% of the primary vote, the Coalition 28%, the Greens 14% and One Nation 4%. Among those aged 35-49, it was Labor 39%, Coalition 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 7%. And among those aged 50 or over, the Coalition had 44%, Labor 35%, One Nation 6% and Greens 5%.

It is still important to poll well with this oldest demographic. According to the 2016 census, those aged 18-34 represent 30.3% of the eligible voting age population and those aged 35-49 represent 26.0%. The share of the voting-age population aged 50 or over, however, is 43.7%.

Results by gender were similar. Men gave Labor 40% of the primary vote, the Coalition 37%, the Greens 7% and One Nation 6%. With women, Labor had 39%, the Coalition 37%, the Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. After preferences, Labor would be doing about one point better with women than men.

The best source for state voting intentions is The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack. Perhaps reflecting the Coalition’s victory in the recent NSW election, federal Labor’s lead over the Coalition in that state has been reduced to just 50.1-49.9 from about 54-46 in the last few weeks. This is about a 0.6% swing in Labor’s favour from 2016.

Labor has maintained a larger lead in most other states, however. In Victoria, Labor leads by 55.1-44.9, a 3.2% swing to Labor since 2016. In Queensland, Labor leads by 52.0-48.0, a 6.1% swing to Labor. In SA, Labor leads by 55.7-44.3, a 3.4% swing to Labor.

In WA, the Coalition still leads by 51.0-49.0, but this is a 3.6% swing in Labor’s favour from 2016.

Nationally, BludgerTrack gives Labor a 52.5-47.5 lead, a 2.8% swing to Labor.

One Nation wins two seats in the NSW upper house

In the March 23 NSW election, 21 members of the upper house were elected by statewide proportional representation, with a quota of 1/22 of the vote, or 4.55%.

The Coalition won 7.66 quotas, Labor 6.53, the Greens 2.14, One Nation 1.52, the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1.22, the Christian Democrats 0.50, the Liberal Democrats 0.48, Animal Justice 0.43 and Keep Sydney Open 0.40.

The Coalition was certain to win an eighth seat, and Labor and One Nation were best placed for two other seats. On preferences, Animal Justice overtook the Liberal Democrats, Christian Democrats and One Nation to win the second-to-last seat, with One Nation’s second candidate, Rod Roberts, defeating the Christian Democrats for the final seat.

It is the first time since 1981 that the Christian Democrats have failed to win a seat in the NSW upper house. David Leyonhjelm, who resigned from the Senate to run as the lead Liberal Democrat candidate in NSW, did not win.

The Coalition now holds 17 of the 42 total upper house seats (down three), Labor 14 (up two), the Greens four (down one), the Shooters two (steady), One Nation two (up two), Animal Justice two (up one) and the Christian Democrats one (down one). One Green member, Justin Field, resigned from the party, and is now an independent.

Overall, the right now holds 22 of the 42 seats. On legislation opposed by the left-wing parties, the Coalition will require support from One Nation, the Shooters and Christian Democrats.

Read more: Coalition wins a third term in NSW with few seats changing hands

Brexit likely delayed until at least October 31

The European Union leaders have decided to delay Brexit until at least October 31. Without a majority for any plausible Brexit option, the House of Commons could only vote to delay Brexit to prevent a no-deal departure from the EU, but this delay will likely not appeal to the general public or “leave” voters.

Two new polls have the Conservatives slumping to just 28-29% of the UK vote, 4-7 points behind Labour.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-maintains-its-lead-in-newspoll-while-one-nation-drops-nsw-upper-house-finalised-115426

NEWS

Quantum physics experiment shows Heisenberg was right about uncertainty, in a certain sense

Quantum particles are not really just particles... they are also waves.Shutterstock/agsandrewThe word uncertainty is used a lot in quantum mechanics. One school of thought is that this means there’s something...

Setka furore opens division within the labour movement – and there is no easy solution

Setka has form in attracting negative media attention as Victorian state secretary of the Construction, Forestry, Mining, Maritime and Energy Union.AAP/Daniel PockettJohn Setka’s reported comments about Rosie Batty have the...

Michelle Grattan on John Setka, press freedom, Adani approval and tax

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has called for John Setka to be expelled from the Labor Party.AAP/Bianca de MarchiMichelle Grattan talks with University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor and Vice-President Academic, Professor...

Built like buildings, boab trees are life-savers with a chequered past

A boab tree in the Kimberley. Boab trees can live for thousands of years and their trunks hollow out as they get older. ShutterstockSign up to the Beating Around the Bush...

Proposal to mine fossil-rich site in New Zealand sparks campaign to protect it

Foulden Maar formed 23 million years ago and contains tens of thousands of fossils of extinct plants and animals.Supplied, CC BY-NDAn Australian company’s application to mine a fossil-rich site in...

what it's like to be a pensioner renting privately as Australia's housing costs soar

Older private renters are far more likely to experience loneliness than their counterparts in social housing and that loneliness can be acute.ShutterstockA growing number of older Australians don’t own their...

How a cyber attack hampered Hong Kong protesters

Massive public protests taking place in Hong Kong over the past week are aimed at a new extradition law, known as the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance, that would see accused criminals...

is white meat as bad for your cholesterol levels as red meat?

Whether you're eating red meat or white meat, a lean cut is the healthier way to go.From shutterstock.comYou’ve probably heard eating too much fatty red meat is bad for your...

the all-knowing narrator in Kim Scott's Taboo

View from a highway rest stop east of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia. In Kim Scott's Taboo, the landscape becomes a narrator.Chris Fithall/flickr, CC BYWhy do we tell stories, and how are...

Barry Humphries' humour is now history – that's the fate of topical, satirical comedy

Dame Edna Everage at Melbourne Town Hall in 2006 after being presented with the Key to the City. Simon Mossman/AAPLet’s face it, Thursday evenings on ABC television are not quite...

City temperatures and city economics, a hidden relationship between sun and wind and profits

Cairns Lagoon: as a good response to the tropical climate, it's a very active place but with little business activity.Silvia Tavares, Author providedUrban design undoubtedly influences the urban economy. A...

Children with autism may use memory differently. Understanding this could help us teach them

Some stereotypical behaviours of individuals with autism suggest they don’t use a certain type of memory in the same way others might.Annie Spratt/UnsplashAround one in every 70 Australians are on...

Popular articles from Modern Australian

Cosmetic Physician, Dr. Phoebe Jones shares her expert tips on how to treat the most asked about skincare problemsYvonne Allen: How to improve your sex life in your relationshipThe Rug Lady Announces The Launch Of The Latest Saffia Rug Range7 Tips To Get Your Home Ready For WinterFuture-proofing your career prospectsYour Winter Hot Water System Guide for 2019Circulatory System Diseases and Risk FactorsEXYRA eyewearShould you get a hair transplant in Turkey if your hair is grey?Do You Need a Tummy Tuck or Just Liposuction?Best 4 Sassicaia Wine with Soothing Taste and AromaMarvelous Makeover - 5 Tips to Revitalize Your Look This SummerWhat to Expect When Recovering from Gynecomastia SurgeryClickClack Pantry Range | Helping Australians save time & moneyThe Gentleman’s Guide to Wearing Custom Ties