Is Steve Smith set to become the best? What data says about Test cricket’s elite 10,000+ run club

In the recent Border-Gavaskar series against India, Steve Smith agonisingly missed out reaching 10,000 Test runs in front of his home crowd at the Sydney Cricket Ground, falling short by just one run.

However he entered the “10K club” in style after hitting his 35th century against Sri Lanka in the series won by Australia, 2-0.

Smith is now the 15th batsman to join the exclusive club and the fourth Australian to do so, after Allan Border, Steve Waugh and Ricky Ponting.

The illustrious group of players who have reached 10,000 is headed by Indian legend Sachin Tendulkar (15,921 runs) with Ponting (13,378) second and South African Jacques Kallis (13,289) third.

Among this group, Tendulkar, the West Indies’ Brian Lara and Sri Lanka’s Kumar Sangakkara were fastest to 10,000 in terms of innings batted (195), just ahead of Ponting (196). Smith was fifth fastest (205 innings).

But where does Smith sit among this group of truly elite batsmen? How does he compare to his fellow Australians? And can he eventually reach the pinnacle and overtake Tendulkar at the top of the mountain?

The challenges of modern cricket

Modern day cricket is physically, emotionally and psychologically demanding.

The physical demands, coupled with fixture congestion, make it tough on athletes’ bodies. Research also suggests psychological pressures have a heightened impact on players’ thinking, feeling and overall performances.

The evolution of lucrative Twenty20 games has also meant cricketers often play in these shorter-format leagues instead of resting between Test series.

Smith is one of many elite cricketers still playing all three formats of the sport.

While some batsmen continue to score well into their late 30s, more often than not performance declines in these twilight years of a batter’s career.

Smith turns 36 in June.

Judging the best

The 10,000 run club is the hallmark of batting excellence in Test cricket.

It is regarded as the pinnacle of a batsman’s career achievement.

Together (at the time of writing) the players in the 10K club have scored 181,947 runs, with 541 centuries and 818 half centuries.

The highest individual score belongs to Lara, who scored 400 (not out) against England in 2004.

Lara also maintained a very high strike rate (60.51) throughout his career.

A strike rate is a batsman’s run scoring efficiency per 100 balls – the higher the strike rate, the faster the batter scores. A higher strike rate puts more pressure on opposition bowlers and when a batter scores quickly, it allows more time for their team’s bowlers to take the 20 wickets required for a Test victory.

Only Ponting (a strike rate of 58.72 per 100 balls) closely matches Lara’s calibre, but England’s Joe Root (57.47) is enjoying a late-career renaissance and is closing the gap.

Compare that to the Border and Sunil Gavaskar era (late 1970s–early 1990s) when runs were not as easy to come by – these two ended their career with low (41.09 and 43.35 respectively) strike rates.

What about Smith?

In his second match, his strike rate was an exceptionally high 75.75 but, since then it has dipped to 53.58 as Smith has become a more balanced batsman.

Another way to judge a batter’s impact is their centuries per innings rate.

Smith has the highest century per innings rate (17.48%) among the 10K club. He recently scored his 36th century, matching his modern-day peer, Root. But Root has played 72 additional innings.

In terms of overall centuries, Tendulkar leads the way having scored a staggering 51 centuries during his Test career (six more than Kallis, in second). However, Tendulkar did it over a mammoth 329 innings – 38 more than anyone else on the list.

How the Australians compare

Across generations, the four Australians have shown different styles of play in achieving the landmark.

Data shows Border was the most consistent player among them, with his average remaining relatively steady through his career, while Waugh improved his performance after a lacklustre start to his career.

Smith hit his peak at around his 75th match and Ponting around his 115th match, before their run scoring dropped.

In terms of batting positions, data suggests Smith has scored most of his runs coming in at number four. Border was most dominant coming in at four and five.

Ponting dominated as a number three batsman, while Waugh was very consistent at number five.

How far can Smith go?

Considering Smith’s age (35), current form and the physical demands of modern cricket, our findings suggest it will take him at least another three to four years to surpass Ponting.

That may be achievable but Smith’s year-long ban after the 2018 “sandpapergate saga” makes reaching Tendulkar’s mark extremely unlikely.

However, there is a chance Smith ends up with the best average in the club.

His batting average currently sits at 56.74, with only Sangakkara (57.4) higher.

Considering his current form, with four centuries in his past five Test matches, there’s every chance this modern-day great retires atop the tree in that metric at least.