Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends 2025 – Shifting consumption patterns reshaping retail real estate

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire - 29 September 2025 - Cushman & Wakefield, a leading global real estate services firm, today released its annual Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends report.

According to the report, by Q2 2025, the total prime retail property stock in the core markets of the 15 major cities we track in Greater China reached 116.7 million sq m. During the past year, supported by "boosting consumption" measures, the Chinese mainland's retail market demonstrated strong resilience. However, influenced by subdued consumer confidence and project upgrading efforts, the overall average vacancy rate across the 15 major cities rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 11.1% in Q2 2025.

The supply/demand rundown for 17 city core area-level markets in Greater China (Q2 2025)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Duke Zhen, Managing Director, Head of Retail Services, China, Cushman & Wakefield, said, "With policy stimulus, the consumption environment improved marginally in the first half of 2025, reflected in both the recovery of consumer confidence and the accelerating growth of total retail sales of consumer goods on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Driven by emotional consumption and the increasing importance of quality–price ratio, the Chinese consumer market has become more diverse and dynamic, exhibiting renewed vitality."

Shaun Brodie, Head of Greater China Research Content, Cushman & Wakefield said, "Since the start of this year, a series of supportive policies have continued to stimulate consumption, driving steady growth in the Chinese consumer market. To meet increasingly diverse and personalized consumer demands, the retail sector has been actively introducing new business models, consumption scenarios, service offerings, and retail formats."

Retailers and shopping center landlords are responding with a renewed focus on customer experience, introducing new technologies, and experimenting with innovative retail formats. In terms of supply and demand, several key trends stand out in 2025:

• Renovation and upgrading of existing properties;
• Integration of cultural and tourism consumption;
• The rise of pop toys as part of emotional consumption;
• Strong growth in health-related consumption.

While slower economic growth and uncertain disposable incomes are likely to temper household spending, ongoing government measures to stimulate consumption — together with the success of new retail concepts and formats — are expected to support steady momentum. The outlook for Greater China's retail property market remains positive, with policy support, changing consumer preferences, and innovative supply all converging to drive sustainable long-term growth.

Beijing

By the end of H1 2025, the total stock in Beijing's retail property market reached 18.7 million sq m, of which 16.9 million sq m was accounted for by shopping centers.

Despite pressures from an economic slowdown and consumption downgrading, the market broadly maintained stability over the past year. Average asking rents stood at RMB2,130 per sq m per month, while the vacancy rate edged down to 10.5%. To adapt to shifting consumer sentiment, malls have actively renewed and upgraded their tenant mixes, aiming to attract footfall, enhance customer loyalty, and align with changing demands. The strategy has helped mitigate operational challenges faced by both projects and retail brands.

Looking ahead, approximately 500,000 sq m of new supply is scheduled to enter the market in H2 2025. This pipeline is concentrated in suburban developments and urban renewal projects across traditional submarkets, which will further diversify Beijing's retail landscape.

In parallel, Beijing has rolled out a series of supportive policies to stimulate consumption. A new policy issued in June emphasizes upgrading traditional submarkets and malls, fostering innovative consumption scenarios, promoting the introduction of brand first stores, and providing targeted support for China-Chic brands and time-honored domestic brands. Together, these measures are expected to reinforce market confidence and unlock new consumption potential in the capital.

Shanghai

In the past year, 1.61 million sq m of new retail space was added to the Shanghai market, bringing the total stock of mid- to high-end shopping centers to approximately 25.0 million sq m.

The influx of new supply in H2 2024 and H1 2025 placed pressure on market fundamentals. The overall vacancy rate for mid- to high-end retail properties edged up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 9.5%, while the average first-floor asking rent fell 4.2% year-on-year to RMB728.7 per sq m per month. The rental decline was primarily driven by competitive pricing at newly launched suburban projects.

This heightened level of supply has intensified intra-market competition. Many aging retail properties are responding by repositioning their projects, upgrading brand mixes, and enhancing facilities to better align with the needs of Shanghai's increasingly sophisticated consumer base.

Looking ahead, the second half of 2025 will see a further influx of new projects, adding to competitive pressures. Nonetheless, established properties by leading developers are expected to remain attractive to both international and prominent domestic retailers. Conversely, older retail properties located near new developments will face mounting competition and will need to adapt proactively to retain relevance and market share.

Shenzhen

Shenzhen's retail market maintained positive momentum in the past year, with demand bright spots providing confidence for mall operators. Development activity also picked up, with approximately 878,000 sq m of prime shopping mall space delivered. As a result, Shenzhen's prime mall stock increased 13.3% year-on-year to reach 7.5 million sq m.

At the same time, consumer behavior is evolving. More residents are frequenting community-based retail premises for convenience, reducing visits to large-scale malls. In response, landlords adjusted strategies by lowering rents to attract new entrants. The average monthly rental level declined 6.2% year-on-year to RMB761.6 per sq m, while the citywide vacancy rate rose 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 9.1%. Looking ahead, approximately 1.3 million sq m of prime new mall space is scheduled for completion through the end of 2027. This influx of supply will intensify competition and exert further downward pressure on rental levels.

To counterbalance these pressures, Shenzhen has introduced a series of action plans aimed at improving employment rates and raising household incomes, measures designed to strengthen consumer confidence. These initiatives are expected to help mitigate the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and support more sustainable long-term retail growth.

Guangzhou

Over the past year, Guangzhou added 443,000 sq m of high-quality retail space, lifting citywide stock to more than 6 million sq m. Approximately 87% of this new supply was delivered in non-core commercial districts, accelerating the city's retail landscape diversification and extending consumer reach beyond traditional hubs.

Despite signs of improving consumer demand, retailers adopted a more cautious expansion approach. As a result, the overall vacancy rate rose 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 9.2%. Competitive leasing strategies were observed in some prime malls, where landlords lowered rents to attract leading brands. This contributed to a 6.1% year-on-year decline in average prime mall rents, which fell to RMB672.6 per sq m per month.

Still, Guangzhou's retail sector demonstrated resilience. Supported by the "first store" policy, prime malls introduced nearly 85 first stores in the past year — representing a 70% increase year-on-year — a clear sign of retailers' long-term confidence in the city's consumer base.

Looking ahead, approximately 976,000 sq m of new retail space is scheduled for completion between mid-2025 and 2026, with Panyu and Liwan districts accounting for nearly 40% of deliveries. Meanwhile, Guangzhou continues to strengthen its policy environment, issuing a draft implementation plan to stimulate consumer markets and rolling out special measures targeting duty-free retail, elderly services, and the catering industry. These initiatives are expected to further energize market vitality and accelerate the city's consumption recovery.

Chengdu

The recovery of consumption supported the growth of Chengdu's retail market over the past year. During H2 2024 and H1 2025, four new shopping centers were completed, adding 452,000 sq m of retail space and bringing the prime retail market stock to approximately 8.5 million sq m.

However, the addition of new projects with relatively high vacancy rates, combined with adjustments in existing retail properties, led to an increase in the overall vacancy rate, which rose 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to 8.93% by the end of Q2 2025. In response to this pressure, the average first-floor asking rent declined 3.4% year-on-year to RMB586.62 per sq m per month.

Despite these challenges, Chengdu has implemented multiple supportive policies in 2025 aimed at enhancing the retail sector. These initiatives are designed to diversify consumption scenarios, improve consumer spending capacity, and revitalize the city's retail market, providing a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth.

Hangzhou

Hangzhou continues to promote "domestic demand expansion and consumption growth" through targeted policies and activities, positioning consumption as a key engine for the city's economic vitality. However, amid growing global uncertainties, demand remains somewhat constrained, highlighting the need for stronger foundations to support recovery.

Over the past 12 months, Hangzhou's premium retail market welcomed the grand openings of six major commercial projects, adding nearly 380,000 sq m of new retail space. This marks a new phase of qualitative upgrading within the city's retail sector.

Commercial complexes are increasingly enhancing their offerings to provide richer and more diverse shopping experiences. The market is also seeing a concentrated launch of flagship stores and first-to-market outlets, while emerging formats such as anime-themed venues and pet-centric stores continue to expand, creating new opportunities for premium consumption.

Hong Kong

Over the past year, Hong Kong has seen a continuous uptick in total tourist arrivals. However, visitor spending has become more cautious, with a growing preference for cultural experiences and value-for-money retail offerings. As a result, the increase in visitor numbers has not yet translated into stronger retail sales. From January to June 2025, total retail sales amounted to HK$185.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.3%. High-end retail segments traditionally favored by tourists were particularly affected.

Some traditional retailers have exited the market after struggling to adapt to evolving consumption patterns among inbound tourists and local residents. Consequently, vacancy pressure has increased, with the average high street vacancy rate rising to 9.7% as at Q2 2025, exerting downward pressure on overall high street and F&B rents.

Despite these challenges, current attractive rental levels have encouraged mass-market retailers and emerging brands to enter high street areas, boosting leasing activity. The market is also undergoing a reshuffling of tenants, resulting in a more diversified and dynamic retail landscape.

Looking ahead, government initiatives promoting mega events and world-class concerts are expected to draw more international visitors and tourism spending. As a result, high street and F&B rents are projected to remain largely stable in H2 2025.

Taipei

In 2024, Taipei's retail market stabilized as the effects of the pandemic recovery gradually diminished. Major shopping districts returned to regular activity, while brands adopted longer-term expansion strategies. The opening of the Taipei Dome boosted visibility and attracted visitors to the Zhongxiao district, while Zhongshan-Nanjing and Ximen maintained stable performance, supported by everyday consumption and inbound tourism.

During H1 2025, the retail market continued to perform steadily, with both rents and vacancy rates remaining flat. However, the long-term impact of the Taipei Dome on Zhongxiao remains to be seen.

Looking ahead to H2 2025, global economic uncertainty and outbound travel, which is diverting domestic spending overseas, are expected to persist. Meanwhile, new retail supply such as Dream Plaza will intensify competition. Major retail districts are likely to remain stable but may face rising pressure from consumer dispersal. Enhancing the street-level shopping experience and maintaining dynamic brand content will be key to sustaining competitiveness. The growth of micro-stores and flexible leases reflects a broader shift toward spatial efficiency and faster tenant turnover, helping retail districts adapt to evolving market dynamics.

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About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2024, the firm reported revenue of $9.4 billion across its core services of Valuation, Consulting, Project & Development Services, Capital Markets, Project & Occupier Services, Industrial & Logistics, Retail, and others. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.hk or follow us on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/cushman-&-wakefield-greater-china).