Google AI


Modern Australian

One year on, El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment has proven a spectacular failure

  • Written by: John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
One year on, El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment has proven a spectacular failure

A year ago, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender – alongside the US dollar, which the Central American country adopted in 2001 to replace its own currency, the colón.

President Nayib Bukele, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, promoted the initiative as one that would deliver multiple economic benefits.

Making Bitcoin legal tender, he said, would attract foreign investment, generate jobs and help “push humanity at least a tiny bit into the right direction”.

His ambitions extended to building an entire “Bitcoin city” – a tax-free haven funded by issuing US$1 billion in government bonds. The plan was to spend half the bond revenue on the city, and the other half on buying Bitcoin, with assumed profits then being used to repay the bondholders.

El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced his plan for 'Bitcoin City' at a conference for cryptocurrency speculators in November 2021.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele announced his plan for ‘Bitcoin City’ at a conference for cryptocurrency speculators in November 2021. Salvador Melendez/AP

Now, a year on, there’s more than enough evidence to conclude Bukele – who has also called himself “the world’s coolest dictator” in response to criticisms of his creeping authoritarianism – had no idea what he was doing.

This bold financial experiment has proven to be an almost complete failure.

Making Bitcoin legal tender

Making Bitcoin legal tender meant much more than allowing Bitcoin to be used for transactions. That was already possible, as it is in most (but far from all) countries.

If a Salvadoran wanted to pay for something in bitcoins, and the recipient was willing to accept them, they could.

But Bukele wanted more. Making bitcoins legal tender meant a payee had to accept them. As the 2021 legislation stated, “every economic agent must accept Bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever acquires a good or service”.

Read more: Can Bitcoin be a real currency? What's wrong with El Salvador's plan

To encourage Bitcoin uptake, the government created an app called “Chivo Wallet” (“chivo” is slang for “cool”) to trade bitcoins for dollars without transaction fees. It also came preloaded with US$30 as a bonus (the median weekly income is about US$360).

Yet despite the law and these incentives, Bitcoin has not been embraced.

Greeted with little enthusiasm

A nationally representative survey of 1,800 Salvadoran households in February indicated just 20% of the population was using Chivo Wallet for Bitcoin transactions. More than double that number downloaded the app, but only to claim the US$30.

Among respondents who identified as business owners, just 20% said they were accepting bitcoins as payment. These were typically large companies (among the top 10% of companies by size).

Business acceptance of Bitcoin in El Salvador

NBER Working Paper 29968, CC BY A survey for the El Salvador Chamber of Commerce in March found only 14% of businesses were transacting using Bitcoin. Making huge losses Fortunately for Salvadorans, nothing has come of the US$1 billion Bitcoin bonds scheme. But the Bukele government has still spent more than US$100 million buying bitcoins – which are now worth less than US$50 million. When Bukele announced his plans in July 2021, Bitcoin’s value was about US$35,000. By the time the legislation came into effect, on September 7 2021, it was about US$45,000. Two months later, it peaked at US$64,400. Now it is trading at around US$20,000. Bukele has made self-congratulatory tweets about “buying the dip” but almost all the bitcoins bought by the government have been for more than US$30,000, at an average price of more than US$40,000. A year ago, Bukele was urging his citizens to hold their money in bitcoins. For anyone who did, the losses would be devastating. Flawed analyses Bukele’s misunderstanding of Bitcoin – and economics more generally – has been demonstrated repeatedly. In June 2021 he tweeted: “Bitcoin has a market cap of US$680 billion. If 1% of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase our GDP by 25%.” This suggests he seemed to think Bitcoin was some sort of investment fund. It also showed he did not understand GDP. Foreign investment is not a component of GDP. There has been no surge in foreign investment nor GDP. In a January 2022 tweet he argued a “gigantic price increase is just a matter of time” because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins while there are 50 million millionaires in the world. “Imagine when each one of them decides they should own at least ONE #Bitcoin,” he proclaimed. Bitcoin’s value has since halved. The rest of the world is not impressed The Bitcoin plan has adversely affected El Salvador’s credit rating and relations with the International Monetary Fund. With investors more wary of lending to the country, local borrowers have had to offer higher interest rates. In January the IMF urged El Salvador to reverse Bitcoin’s legal lender status because of the “large risks for financial and market integrity, financial stability and consumer protection”. Bitcoin is notorious for its use in scams and other illegal activities, as well as its volatility. Bukele tweeted a dismissive response involving a Simpsons-themed meme. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s response to the IMF’s warnings about the risk of making Bitcoin legal tender. Twitter, CC BY This seems particularly rash, given El Salvador has been seeking a loan of more than $1 billion from the IMF. International credit rating agencies Fitch has downgraded El Salvador’s credit rating this year, citing concerns about its Bitcoin policies. Read more: Cryptocurrencies are great for gambling – but lousy at liberating our money from big central banks No other country with its own currency, not even ones such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela with discredited currencies, has followed suit and made Bitcoin legal tender. Given El Salvador’s record, it is is unikely any ever will. Authors: John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Read more https://theconversation.com/one-year-on-el-salvadors-bitcoin-experiment-has-proven-a-spectacular-failure-190229

Downsizing or Upgrading Your Caravan? Here's How to Sell It Without the Hassle

Selling a caravan can feel like a major task, especially when you are unsure about its value, paperwork, or how to find a buyer. Whether you are dow...

The Best Overseas Adventure Holidays for Australians Who Love the Outdoors

Australia offers no shortage of incredible outdoor experiences, but sometimes the best way to satisfy your sense of adventure is to head overseas. A...

Cape Town Wine Shuttle: Winelands Tasting & Tours

Embark on an unforgettable journey through the picturesque Cape Winelands, where world-class wines and breathtaking scenery await. Our Cape Town Win...

Why Giant Rats Tail Grass Keeps Coming Back After Spraying

Giant Rats Tail Grass (GRT) is one of the most frustrating pasture weeds for farmers and lifestyle property owners. You spray an infested area, see th...

When Custom Cardboard Boxes Make Sense for Your Business

Custom cardboard boxes can be useful when a standard carton does not fit a product, packing method or presentation requirement particularly well. A ...

Virtual Livestock Fencing and GPS Tracking: Improving Visibility Across Cattle Properties

What Virtual Livestock Fencing Means for Modern Cattle Management Managing cattle across extensive properties requires more than knowing where anim...

Sydney Pawnbrokers Explained: How Hocking Your Car Actually Works

Sometimes you need cash, and you need it soon. If you own a car, you may already have a way to get it. That's what people mean when they say they've...

Moving Interstate from the Gold Coast to Brisbane (or Back)? What Removalists Wish You Knew First

Have you talked to anyone who’s done the move? They say the same thing: the drive up the M1 is the easy part. It's everything around it that catches...

Why the Spring School Holidays Are a Great Time to Visit Coffs Harbour

The spring school holidays are a good time to spend a few days on the Coffs Coast. The weather is starting to warm up, there is plenty to do outdoor...

What to Do When an Older Car Is No Longer Worth Keeping in Melbourne

Ever looked at another repair quote and wondered whether your old car is still worth the trouble? It is a common turning point for Melbourne motoris...

Your Baby's First Year: A Local Guide to Feeding, Sleep, and When to Get Extra Support

Ask ten parents in a Brisbane mothers' group how their baby is feeding or sleeping, and expect ten different answers.  Someone's baby sleeps throug...

Kitchen and Laundry Makeover Ideas That Don't Require a Full Renovation

Full kitchen renos are expensive — and most people don't actually need one.  They need the kitchen to stop looking like it's stuck in 2009, or they...

How Technology Is Reshaping the Modern Australian Commercial Kitchen

The commercial kitchen has always been shaped by technology. Refrigeration changed how ingredients could be stored, modern ventilation transformed k...

The Number on a Roller Blind Fabric That Nobody Explains

Somewhere in the fabric book, next to the colour name, there is a percentage. Three per cent. Five per cent. Ten per cent. Nobody explains it, most c...

What’s Trending in Men’s Jewellery This Father’s Day!

Finding a Father’s Day gift that feels personal, stylish and genuinely wearable is not always easy. While socks and novelty mugs have traditionally ...

Road Signs: Understanding Their Role in Clear and Effective Signage

Effective signage and display hardware can help businesses communicate information, promote products and organise customer or visitor movement. Road...

Bottle Label Printing: Key Factors to Consider Before Your Next Packaging Run

Effective packaging begins with understanding the product, bottle material, artwork and production requirements when planning bottle label printing. H...

Planning a Long-Distance Move With Interstate Movers Melbourne

Moving between states involves more planning than a typical local relocation. Along with packing and transporting household belongings, you need to...