Jacinta Price is the Coalition's official referendum voice, but Julian Leeser is determined to be heard

In politics, one person’s setback is often another’s opportunity. That’s the story of the Coalition’s Julian Leeser and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price in the Voice referendum.

Leeser, the former shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, is a highly active “yes” campaigner. As of late this week, he had done about 90 webinars, public meetings and speeches advocating for the Voice.

Price, who took Leeser’s place when he quit the front bench after the Liberals decided to oppose the Voice, has become the star of the “no” campaign.

Leeser, who describes himself as a conservative, has used the campaign to also deliver some powerful messages to the Liberal Party about its future and warn against the dangers of fringe politics.

For her part Price, an Indigenous woman from the Northern Territory who represents the Country Liberal Party in the Senate, has sought to anchor Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders firmly in the mainstream, rather than according them a particular place on the grounds of their Indigeneity.

It is something of a mystery why Peter Dutton made Leeser spokesman for the Indigenous portfolio, when he had a long background working with other conservatives and across the political divide on a Voice proposal.

At the time his appointment seemed to imply Dutton would be open to supporting the Voice in some form. Many people believe that was never his intention. But then why install Leeser, ensuring grief later?

Others argue that once the views of the Liberals’ base became evident and the Nationals took their stand, Dutton inevitably followed.

After Leeser left the front bench (for principled and practical reasons – he could never have prosecuted the “no” case) sources close to Dutton said he would not appoint Price, who sits with the Nationals, to replace a Liberal. But it became impossible to go past the outspoken woman from Alice Springs.

Read more: Grattan on Friday: Langton and Price fight with passion and gloves off for beliefs

On the backbench, Leeser quickly took up the megaphone, in his low-key sort of way, and hasn’t put it down since.

His latest major speech was to the Sydney Institute this week, in which he challenged the “no” argument that “Aboriginal people are privileged and this referendum is about special treatment and creating two different classes of Australians”. The claim showed a “total lack of empathy”, Leeser said.

He felt “the first ripples of an American style of politics imported to our country”. This mattered “because that political culture – across the left and the right – has turned the great bastion of freedom and liberty in the history of the world, the United States, into a nation engaging in a cold civil war, splitting communities and even families.

"We are seeing the ripples. We’ve already seen this here on the left, with an indifference and even a yearning to antagonise people of faith, even to the point of nationalising a Catholic hospital [in Canberra] for no other reason than it was Catholic.

"And on the right, we see a similar way of labelling and dismissing people. Just declare them ‘woke’ because if someone is woke you don’t have to engage with your arguments.

"Those American-style ripples are damaging the shared project that is Australia.

"On this both the left and the right are forsaking a willingness to persuade where there is difference and the discomfort that can entail, for the comfort of staying in lockstep with our base.”

In August, Leeser took aim at CPAC, a conference “claiming to represent conservatives”, where a comedian in an offensive spoof on Welcome to Country ceremonies paid tribute to “violent black men and rent seekers past, present and emerging”.

“Our future is not in American glitz and red Trumpian hats, or a political diet of anger,” Leeser told a Liberal audience in a speech titled Winning the Vast Middle.

While Leeser sees the Voice debate presaging the danger of politics going to the fringes, Price casts the proposed institution as embodying the politics of separatism.

“The designers of the Voice continue to push the idea that we are different to everyone else, despite also being Australian,” she told the National Press Club recently.

“Separatism, attributing causes to racism and colonisation does little to nothing to address the true causes,” she said. “When we are led by grievance before fact, we overlook the opportunity to execute pragmatic common-sense approaches capable of realistic and positive outcomes.”

Read more: View from The Hill: Julian Leeser shifts his own dial in the Liberal Party

Price said this week: “The problem with this divisive referendum is the fact that it seeks to create different levels of citizenship” – a proposition Leeser rejects entirely.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott echoed the attack on “separatism” when he told the ABC on Thursday it had characterised Indigenous policy since Gough Whitlam’s time, and Aboriginal people “should be encouraged to integrate into the mainstream”.

Despite only being in parliament since the 2022 election, Price demonstrates a high degree of assertiveness within the Coalition. The fact she is from the Nationals means she is less deferential to Dutton than a Liberal might be.

We saw this last month. Dutton told Sky News that if the Voice referendum failed, his policy for the next election would be to hold a referendum to recognise Indigenous people in the Constitution. “I believe very strongly that it is the right thing to do,” he said.

But Price demurred, saying there would need to be further discussion in the party rooms. Subsequently, she said the Coalition had had “a long-held commitment to recognition, but we would want to absolutely follow the appropriate processes to ensure that those conversations had taken place right across the country involving everybody”. Dutton has reiterated his commitment to recognition.

With Price as minister in the driving seat, Indigenous affairs under a Dutton government would look quite different than if Leeser had the portfolio. As a non-Indigenous man, Leeser’s approach has always been cautious and consultative. Price, having lived experience, leans to backing her judgment.

So what does the future hold for Leeser after the October 14 vote? He’ll never see his old Indigenous portfolio again. Liberal sources suggest he won’t return immediately to the front bench. But he’s one of the more talented Liberals and there is likely to be a path back for him in the longer term.