The British election is Labour’s to lose. What would the UK–Australia relationship look like under Keir Starmer?

Assuming a Labour win in the UK general election – always a risky assumption given Labour’s proclivity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory – the “Global Britain” bombast emanating from the United Kingdom will cease.

Good relations with Australia will continue, however, due to AUKUS, the Australia–UK free trade agreement and the diplomatic groundwork laid by governments of both major parties in Canberra and London.

In truth, the “Global Britain” rhetoric has already been quietly dropped. Developed during the UK’s protracted withdrawal from the European Union, the idea of repositioning the country as a world leader (for example in trade, security, vaccines and just about everything) was always too closely associated with the boosterism of former prime minister Boris Johnson and the record-breakingly brief premiership of Liz Truss to survive a switch to a more “sensible” form of government under Rishi Sunak.

However, the fundamentals of the Australia–UK relationship remain solid. There was a time when British and Australian ministers would meet, say how well the two countries got on, make jokes about cricket and then struggle to find anything meaningful to discuss. But times have changed.

The UK Conservative government actively courted a revived relationship with Australia even before Brexit. The UK’s withdrawal from the EU provided an opportunity for Australia to sign another free trade agreement – widely but quietly assumed to work in Australia’s favour – and do so while asserting what great mates the two countries are. AUKUS then put the relationship on a renewed strategic footing.

Labour’s path to victory

This brings us to the electoral geography of Labour’s chances of gaining the keys to 10 Downing Street. The submarine-building program of AUKUS is good for jobs in the north of England. Winning back working-class votes in the so-called “Red Wall” of northern English constituencies, after Labour’s disastrous showing in 2019, is central to Labour’s hopes of victory.

Under Sir Keir Starmer, party leader since 2020, Labour has worked hard – too hard, some might say – to win back socially conservative voters who abandoned the party due to its equivocation on Brexit under the unpopular Jeremy Corbyn.

In contrast to the left-wing Corbyn, Starmer has embraced the Union Jack, broken his silence on Brexit to quash hopes of the UK ever rejoining the EU, and rolled back pledges for green initiatives.

This will no doubt cost Labour some support from progressive voters. Starmer’s handling of the party’s response to the conflict in Gaza has already lost some support among Muslim voters who typically vote Labour. Nevertheless, the electoral calculation is that progressives cannot bring themselves to vote for the Conservatives, so their vote can be banked.

But people can choose not to vote at all in the UK, and many may decide to stay away on election day. This could depress the vote for both major parties.

The rise of minor parties

This leaves the door open for minor parties to have an outsized effect on July 4.

The Conservatives may lose votes to their right and left. Socially conservative right-wing voters, energised by the anti-woke tactics of the evermore right-leaning Tories, can vote for Reform UK.

This party is the successor to the radical populist UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party, both formerly led by Nigel Farage. At the previous election, Farage did the Tories a huge favour and declined to run candidates against Brexit-supporting Conservatives. With Brexit done, Farage’s successor at the head of Reform, Richard Tice, is unlikely to be so generous.