Labor slumps in Newspoll to a tie with Coalition, with Albanese also down
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Newspoll, conducted June 3–7 from a sample of 1,232, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the post-budget Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s worst position in Newspoll since last November, following the fallout from the defeat of the Voice referendum.
Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (down one), 11% Greens (down two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (up one). The drop for the Greens will be attributed to their stance on Gaza, but other polls below have the Greens at around 14%.
After recording a non-negative net approval for the first time since the Voice referendum last October in the previous Newspoll, Anthony Albanese’s net approval returned to a negative, with his satisfied rating down four to 43% and his dissatisfied up three to 50%, for a net approval of -7, down seven points.
Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the data and a smoothed line has been fitted.
Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -10. In the previous Newspoll, Albanese’s better PM lead over Dutton had blown out to 52–33. In this poll, his lead was drastically reduced to 46–38, Albanese’s lowest Newspoll margin this term.
It’s likely the previous Newspoll was a pro-Labor outlier, and this one may be too rosy for the Coalition. But last week’s YouGov poll alos had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition. I believe Labor’s struggles are primarily due to the cost of living issue.
YouGov poll remains tied at 50–50
A national YouGov poll, conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1,500, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in mid-May. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down one).
Albanese’s net approval was steady at -12, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval fell seven points to -13. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 47–36 (44–37 previously). By 84–16, respondents supported a right for workers to strike.
Essential poll tied at 48–48
A national Essential poll, conducted May 29 to June 2 from a sample of 1,160, had the Coalition and Labor tied at 48% each with 4% undecided (47–46 to the Coalition in mid-May). Primary votes were 36% Coalition (up two), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (up three), 5% One Nation (down three), 3% UAP (up two), 8% for all Others (steady) and 4% undecided (down two).
Albanese’s net approval was up one point since April to -4, with 47% disapproving and 43% approving. Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -1 after achieving a positive net approval in April.
On artificial intelligence (AI), 42% (down three since January) said it carries more risk than opportunity, 21% (steady) more opportunity than risk and 37% (up four) said risk and opportunity are about the same.
Respondents were asked whether children aged 10 to 18 should be able to do various things, then the age a respondent selected was averaged. For buying and consuming alcohol, voting and accessing pornography, the average age was about 17.5. For using social media, it was 15.4. For being held criminally responsible, it was 14.3.
By 68–15, respondents supported increasing the age limit on social media platforms from 13 to 16. By 62–16, respondents supported criminalising hate speech.
Morgan poll: Labor regains lead
A national Morgan poll, conducted May 27 to June 2 from a sample of 1,579, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the May 20–26 Morgan poll that had given the Coalition its best position in this poll since the 2022 election.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (up 2.5), 14% Greens (down one), 4.5% One Nation (down 1.5), 9% independents (steady) and 5.5% others (up one).
Redbridge Queensland poll: another big lead for the LNP
The Queensland state election will be held in October. A Redbridge poll, conducted in two waves in February and May from a sample of 880, gave the Liberal National Party a 57–43 lead, from primary votes of 47% LNP, 28% Labor, 12% Greens and 13% for all Others.
The “Labor government led by Steven Miles” had a net approval of -11, with 37% giving it a poor rating and 26% a good rating. The LNP opposition led by David Crisafulli had a +14 net approval (35% good, 21% poor).
Since Newspoll gave the LNP a 54–46 lead in March, Queensland polls have all suggested Labor faces a heavy defeat at the October election.
Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor still well ahead
A Victorian Redbridge poll, also conducted in February and May from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55–45 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since a March Redbridge poll. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up four) and 13% for all Others (down three).
The “Labor government led by Jacinta Allan” had a net approval of -7, with 37% giving it a poor rating and 30% a good rating. The Coalition opposition led by John Pesutto had a -15 net approval (34% poor, 19% good).
This poll contrasts with the Victorian Resolve poll that was conducted in April and May, which gave the Coalition a 37–28 primary vote lead over Labor.
Modi’s party loses majority at Indian election
I covered the June 4 vote counting after the seven-stage Indian election for The Poll Bludger. PM Narendra Modi’s BJP party lost 63 seats to lose its single-party majority, although allied parties won enough seats for Modi to be returned for a third successive term. It had been widely expected that Modi would win a landslide.
At the May 29 South African election, the African National Congress lost the majority it had held at every election since 1994. There was a second successive landslide for the left at the June 2 Mexican election.
I am covering the European parliament election, held from Thursday to Sunday, for The Poll Bludger. Labour remains over 20 points ahead of the Conservatives in UK national polls, with the election on July 4. In US national polls, Donald Trump still leads Joe Biden by about one point despite his May 30 conviction.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
