Indigenous suicide and incarceration are increasing, according to latest Closing the Gap report

The rate of suicide among Indigenous Australians is increasing, as is the rate of children in out-of-home care, according to the latest Closing the Gap report released by the Productivity Commission.

Assessing progress, or lack of it, on 15 socio-economic targets for which data is available, with new data for nine, the commission finds only five closing-the-gap targets are on track to be met.

Five targets show improvement but are not on track, Progress on four is worsening. One has shown no change from the baseline.

Among the negatives, the report shows Indigenous people being incarcerated at an increased rate, with the target of a 15% reduction by 2031 not on track. The other measure that has gone backwards is the proportion of children assessed as on track developmentally.

The mixed-picture findings come as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel on Friday to the Garma festival in Arnhem Land, where he will be accompanied by his new Minister for Indigenous Australians, Malarndirri McCarthy.

McCarthy said of the latest annual report: “These figures are deeply troubling, but I am determined to work in partnership with First Nations Australians, the Coalition of Peaks and State and Territory governments to bring about positive change.

"I will be reaching out to my colleagues across the parliament to seek a bipartisan approach to Indigenous affairs.”

The commission warns against the “tyranny of the aggregate” – the national figures mask differences between different jurisdictions.

On the positive side, the life expectancy gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people is improving although target of a zero gap by 2031 is not on track. Current life expectancy for an Indigenous man is is 71.9 years; for a woman it is 75.6 years.

In other health results, a higher proportion of Indigenous babies have a healthy birth weight, with this target on track.

Data to assess progress against the target on family violence is not available.

In education, the proportions of

• Indigenous children in Year Before Fulltime Schooling (YBFS) early childhood education is increasing and is on track for the target to be met by 2025

• Indigenous people attaining Year 12 or equivalent is increasing, but the target is not on track to be met by 2031

• those aged 25–34 who have completed a tertiary qualification is increasing, but the target is not on track to be met by 2031

• young Indigenous people fully engaged in employment, education or training has risen but the target is not on track to be met by 2031.

There has been an improvement in those aged 25-64 who are employed and this target is on track.

The proportion of people living in non-overcrowded housing has increased although this target is not on track to be met by 2031.

Positive results were recorded for Aboriginal land and sea rights. The proportion of land mass subject to Indigenous people’s legal rights is on track to be met by 2030. The proportion of sea area could potentially exceed the target by 2030.

Failure in the justice area continues.

The target of a 15% reduction in adult incarceration by 2031 is not on track.

Indigenous young people continue to be over-represented in the criminal justice system, with no progress.

In 2022, 212 Indigenous people died from suicide in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. In 2018 the number had been 174. The adjusted suicide rate rose from 25.1 per 100,000 to 29.9.

Suicide was the leading cause of death in the five years to 2022 for Indigenous people aged 15-39. Those aged 35-44 have the highest rate of death by suicide.

There was a big gender gap, with male deaths by suicide 3.3 times higher for those of females.

Suicide death rates increased with remoteness. In the five years to 2022, males in remote and very remote areas had a suicide rate of 45.2 per 100,000, This compared with 38.1 in major cities.

“Limited access to mental health services may be one of the drivers of higher rates in more remote areas,” the report says.

The target of cutting the rate of over-representation of Indigenous children in out-of-home care by 45% by 2031 is not on track.

In 2023, 57.2 per 1,000 Indigenous children up to age 17 were removed from their families by the State/Territory child protection systems. While this was a very slight improvement since 2021, the rate has worsened since the baseline year of 2019, when the figure was 54.2.

“Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 5-17 years are experiencing rising rates of out-of-home care, especially children aged 15-17. Children aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years have consistently experienced the highest rates since 2019 (the baseline year), Children under 5 years are seeing a decline in out-of-home care, with infants under 1 year having the lowest rates.”

The report says that in 2023 the age-standardised rate of imprisonment for Indigenous adults was 15.2 times higher than for non-Indigenous adults, compared to 12.5 times higher in 2019.

“Male imprisonment, particularly among 40 to 49 year olds, is driving most of the national increase.”

The target of reducing the rate of Indigenous young people in detention by at least 30% by 2031 is not on track.

In 2022-23 the rate of Indigenous youth aged 10-17 in detention on an average day was 29.8 per 10,000 young people. An initial decline followed by rises means the trend of the national target shows no change from the 2018-19 baseline. A no-change assessment is “provided with a low level of confidence, but there is a high level of confidence that the target is not on track”.

The report says that in most jurisdictions “more young people are being proceeded against by police multiple times”. The proportion of Indigenous people proceeded against multiple times rose in four of five jurisdictions for which there was data (NSW, South Australia, ACT and the NT).

Previously reported data provide further context on youth incarceration. In 2021-22, 79% of Indigenous youth 10 and over in detention were unsentenced. This meant they had either been charged and were waiting the outcome of their case, or they had been found guilty and were awaiting sentencing. Almost all those in unsentenced detention were on remand.

Earlier this year the Productivity Commission said: “The system itself (remand and refusal of bail) is a contributor to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth incarceration”.

The Coalition of Peaks, representing Indigenous organisations, said the new commission data showed while many targets were not being met, “the ones that are succeeding are those where community control is in place”.

Coalition of Peaks co-convenor Catherine Liddle said: “There are still far too many non-Indigenous operated service providers being funded to deliver to our people, and they are doing so without consideration for what we really need, without the knowledge of how interconnected so many aspects of our lives and culture are, and without the understanding of how our communities and people think and feel”.