Thailand’s democracy has taken another hit, but the country’s progressive forces won’t be stopped

After two tumultuous weeks in Thai politics, the country has a new prime minister and new opposition party in parliament. The sweeping changes have demonstrated yet again the power of the Constitutional Court over Thailand’s fragile democratic institutions.

The political intrigue began on August 7 when the court dissolved the progressive Move Forward Party, the main opposition party in parliament following its surprising showing in the 2023 national elections.

Two days later, the party reconstituted itself as the People’s Party and announced it would continue to lead the opposition.

Then, on August 14, the Constitutional Court disqualified Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai party from holding the post, and removed him from office.

And two days after that decision, the parliament duly elected Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra as his replacement. She is the third member of her family to serve as prime minister after her father, Thaksin Shinawatra (2001–06), and aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra (2011–14).

Unfortunately, these kinds of incidents have become normalised in Thailand. They demonstrate the extent to which conservative forces in the country continue to use various tools of “lawfare”, including the Constitutional Court, to target opposition politicians and parties and stifle the will of the people.

Despite these setbacks to Thailand’s democracy, the country is changing fast. It is becoming more progressive and less submissive to military and monarchy authority.

So, these latest manoeuvres by the country’s gerontocracy may not be a show of strength after all. Rather, as one Thai politics expert put it, these moves may be the “last gasp” of the conservative old guard that has long dominated Thai politics and society.

Revolving door of prime ministers

Over the last two decades, five prime ministers from the Pheu Thai party and its predecessors have been forced from office.

Thaksin Shinawatra was removed in a military coup in September 2006 and his party was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court.

Yingluck Shinatwatra led another successor party to a win at the 2011 elections, but she, too, was removed from power by the Constitutional Court in 2014, followed by another military coup.

With Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s elevation to prime minister last week, the powerful Shinawatra family has made a stunning return to the top of Thai politics. However, this may not be quite the triumphant re-establishment of a family political dynasty that Thaksin Shinawatra expects.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is just 37 years old and inexperienced. And despite the fact the economy showed some growth in the first quarter of this year, her government faces significant economic challenges, such as high levels of household and corporate debt and an economic slowdown in the US and China.

Thaksin Shinawatra also remains in the cross-hairs of the conservative military establishment. After spending 15 years in self-imposed exile to avoid facing charges he contends were politically motivated, he returned to Thailand last year after Pheu Thai took power.

He was then indicted in June for allegedly insulting the monarchy during a media interview in 2015.

Another new progressive party dissolved

Perhaps the more concerning development in recent days, however, was the Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve the progressive Move Forward party, which had won the most seats in parliament in last year’s election.

Progressive politicians have fallen afoul of the court a number of times in recent years.

In the 2019 elections, for example, Future Forward, a brand new progressive political party led by a young, charismatic politician, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, stunned observers by winning 80 seats. The court, however, soon disqualified Thanathorn from parliament and dissolved the party.

The party reconstituted itself as Move Forward under the leadership of another young leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, and it did even better in the 2023 elections, winning 151 seats in the House of Representatives.

The court, however, suspended Pita and dissolved his party over its attempts to reform the anti-democratic lese majeste law. It also banned the party’s leadership, including Pita, from politics for ten years.

The party’s remaining MPs will be able to stay in parliament under the banner of the People’s Party, though nearly 40 are now under investigation for alleged ethics violations, including its new leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

Read more: Explainer: why was the winner of Thailand's election blocked from becoming prime minister?

What does this mean for Thai democracy?

There now appear to be three distinct centres of political power in Thailand:

• Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai party
• the military-monarchy complex and their associated parties
• the new progressive People’s Party.

While Pita warned against the continued use of “lawfare” to muzzle the opposition in an essay for The Economist earlier this month, there is some room for optimism.

It appears much of the population has moved on from the nepotism and rampant self-interest that has long defined Thai politics. According to a recent poll, nearly half of respondents said their preferred prime minister would be Pita (47%), while Paetongtarn was favoured by just 10.5% and Srettha just 8.7%.

The People’s Party is also offering a much more democratic vision for Thailand, based on integrity and reforming the lese majeste law. (Its leader, Natthaphong, has acknowledged, though, that the party must now “think carefully about how to amend it”.)

The party’s electoral march towards government looks difficult to stop. It’s likely Move Forward’s win in the 2023 election will turn into a landslide for the People’s Party at the next election.

The historical obedience and submission to the monarchy and military in Thai society is gradually being whittled away, as older, conservative voters are being replaced by those who want a more democratic and responsive government.

In recent years, there has also been some improvement in Thailand for personal freedoms — notably the legalisation of same-sex marriage and cannabis. The pressure to expand and consolidate basic political freedoms within a multi-party democracy will only increase.

Thailand is not an authoritarian regime – unlike its neighbours Myanmar and Laos – and at some point in the not-too-distant future, the rapidly changing Thai society may well force the military-monarchy complex to cede power for good.