Why did Japan’s new leader trigger snap elections only a week after taking office? And what happens next?

Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has been in the job for just over a week. But today, as had been widely expected, he dissolved Japan’s parliament, the Diet, triggering a snap election for later this month. It’s the fastest dissolution by a postwar leader in Japan.

The typically short campaign will officially start on October 15, with election day on October 27.

So, why is this election happening so soon after Ishiba took office? And what could happen next?

Why hold elections now?

Ishiba became prime minister on September 27 after finally winning the contest to be leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on his fifth attempt. He narrowly beat the ultra-nationalist Sanae Takaichi, denying her bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

By holding a snap election for the House of Representatives, a year before it is required under the Constitution, Ishiba is hoping to catch the opposition parties off guard and secure a more solid mandate to pursue his policy agenda. He’s banking on the public rallying behind a new face and image for his party, following the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The LDP should win next month’s election handily, despite the turbulence caused by recent scandals and leadership changes in the party. The LDP is still far ahead of the opposition in recent polling. A large number of people, however, remain uncommitted to any political party.

The first approval rating poll for Ishiba’s new cabinet was also just over 50%. That’s lower than the polling for Kishida’s first cabinet three years ago. This indicates the public is not as enthusiastic for the new prime minister as the LDP might have hoped.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) has also just elected a new leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda. It is hoping to boost its consistently low opinion poll ratings by attempting to project an image of reliability and stability.

What is Ishiba promising?

In his first policy statement to the Diet last week, Ishiba pledged to revitalise the economy, particularly through doubling subsidies and stimulus spending for regional areas. He also promised to address wage growth, which remains weak due to cost of living pressures. It has been made worse by the relatively weak yen.

Ishiba also wants to boost investment in next-generation technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductor manufacturing. And he indicated he may support an increase in the corporate tax rate. This could tap the massive cash reserves of major corporations to fund regional revitalisation programs. It could also provide more support to families of young children to boost Japan’s sagging birth rate.

Tax hikes would also be necessary to maintain the higher defence spending that began under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and continued under Kishida.

To appease the conservative wing of his party, which had backed Takaichi in the LDP leadership contest, Ishiba has backtracked on several policy positions he had previously supported. This includes reducing Japan’s reliance on nuclear power, allowing women to keep their family names after marriage, legalising same-sex marriage, and encouraging the Bank of Japan to gradually increase interest rates.

Ishiba also conceded his proposal to pursue an “Asian-style NATO” will have to remain a longer-term ambition, after officials from India and the US expressed doubts over the proposal.

Ishiba has confirmed, after some initial uncertainty, that his party will not endorse ten Diet members in the election who were implicated in a slush fund scandal that had damaged Kishida’s government. These Diet members are mainly from the large conservative wing of the party, removing some internal opposition to the new prime minister.

However, public doubts over Ishiba’s commitment to genuine party reform, as well as infighting from the resentful remaining members of the conservative wing, could also result in a drop in support for the LDP.

Is there any hope for the opposition?

If it fares poorly in the election, the LDP could be even more dependent on support from its coalition partner, the Komeito Party, to retain control of the lower house and remain in government.

The Komeito Party is backed by the Buddhist Soka Gakkai religious movement. It currently has 32 members in the Diet, compared to 258 for the LDP.

To even have a chance of forming a minority government, the main opposition CDP (which has 99 seats currently) will need to present an appealing alternative policy program, which it has so far been unable to do. Japan has not had a minority government since 1993.

Should the LDP-Komeito coalition nevertheless drop below the 233 Diet members required to maintain a majority, the second-largest opposition party, the populist, right-wing Japan Innovation Party, could find itself holding the balance of power.

Ishiba’s challenge in this early election is not only to win enough votes to retain government, but to be electorally successful enough to hold off his rivals from the conservative wing of the LDP. They will be seeking to exploit any future failures by Ishiba to pressure him to step down early.

If that were to happen, Takaichi would likely be a leadership contender again.