Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but the ultimate power still belongs to Narendra Modi’s government

This year’s local elections in India’s northernmost territory of Jammu and Kashmir were the first since the national government controversially stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status in 2019. It’s also the first local election in Muslim-majority Kashmir since 2014.

It was a significant moment for the region. The election will restore, at least partially, some degree of self-rule five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took it away.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) was delivered a resounding defeat when the official results were released this week. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Congress alliance won 48 seats in the 90-seat regional legislature. The BJP won 29, mostly in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The former chief minister, Omar Abdullah, was also reinstated as leader. This was a surprising turn given he lost his race for a seat in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, in the national elections a few months ago.

What’s changed?

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have been affected in the past by boycotts and low voter turnout, due largely to public mistrust of the government.

There was also a sense of betrayal after Modi’s government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This had granted special privileges to local residents and gave the region its own constitution and ability to make its own laws.

However, voter turnout in this year’s election reached 64%. And the participation of separatists and independent candidates suggested a change in attitude toward the political process.

For the BJP, the elections are evidence that normalcy has returned to Kashmir after years of ongoing violence. Modi said in a tweet: “Many people claimed that the Jammu and Kashmir would burn if Article 370 was abrogated. However, it didn’t burn, it blossomed.”

Modi had promised during the campaign that “statehood” would be restored, though he suggested this would be realised only if the BJP was victorious.

With Modi’s opposition winning, some believed the election to be a de-facto referendum on the territory’s special status.

The JKNC has always opposed the revocation of Article 370 and the stripping of Kashmir’s autonomy. The party has promised to work towards restoring that special status, as well as repealing the draconian Public Safety Act, which allows for the detention of people for up to two years without charge, and seeking amnesty for prisoners.

In reality, however, the result won’t undo the revocation of Article 370. The new local assembly will have the power to make and amend laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, particularly in education and culture. But Abdullah will still need to seek the federally appointed lieutenant governor’s approval on any major decisions.

Even if many Kashmiris would like to prevent the BJP from extending its reach into the region, the party still maintains some control from New Delhi.

The BJP expanded the lieutenant governor’s powers over public order and policing. The lieutenant governor also has control over the regional anti-corruption bureau and the Directorate of Public Prosecutions.

These powers were heavily criticised by the opposition parties in the region.

Future of democracy?

In recent years, Indian security forces have cracked down on the news media, social media and other forms of communication throughout the region, particularly any forms of Kashmiri solidarity with Palestine.

Human rights advocates say abuses and repression continue in the region, and the climate of fear has had a detrimental impact on Kashmiri life.

Statehood remains one of the biggest grievances for Kashmiri residents. Abdullah said himself that “restoration of full, undiluted statehood for [Jammu and Kashmir] is a prerequisite for these elections”.

Only time will tell if these demands can be addressed, but there is hope a new local government might begin to change the bleak situation in Kashmir.

As I spoke about in a recent podcast, there is optimism the new government will go a long way towards restoring some level of autonomy in Kashmir, as long as it is not obstructed by the lieutenant governor’s new powers.