As Trump deportations intensify, Pacific Island nations worry they could be overwhelmed

In his first term, Donald Trump deported far fewer people from the United States than his three predecessors: Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

Just weeks into his second term, however, Trump is making the deportation of immigrants one of his top priorities. Immigration raids on those who have overstayed their visas and non-citizens with criminal histories have already commenced, with arrests increasing dramatically in recent days.

His administration has announced plans to build a migrant detention facility at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba that could hold up to 30,000 people awaiting deportation. Trump has also threatened to use a little-known law from 1798 to speed up the process, bypassing immigration courts.

While much of the attention has focused on the hundreds of thousands of migrants at risk of being deported to Latin America, many Pacific islanders are likely to be ordered to leave, as well.

A list from the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement of people with “final orders of removal” includes some 350 migrants from Fiji, 150 from Tonga and 57 people from Samoa, among others.

Unsurprisingly, Trump’s threats have invoked fear across the Pacific. Prominent Fijian lawyer Dorsami Naidu told the ABC:

We’ve had lots of people who have served prison sentences in America get sent back to Fiji where they introduce different kinds of criminal activities that they are well-groomed in.

It should be noted, though, that not all of the people with orders to leave have been convicted of serious crimes. Many have simply overstayed their visas or may have only committed a minor infraction. Most want to turn their lives around.

Lack of support

Criminal deportations from the US, Australia and New Zealand have increased dramatically over the past decade, yet there is still a crucial lack of funding to support reintegration services.

Concerns about the repercussions of criminal deportations are particularly high in Tonga, which received more than 1,000 returnees from 2009–20, nearly three-quarters of whom were from the US.

One Tongan commentator suggested Trump’s decision would “unleash a wave of deportees that could drown Tonga and other Pacific nations in crisis”.

Though some Tongan returnees are accepted back into families and societies, many struggle. A large number left the country when they were young and often have limited understanding of the local language and culture. As such, they experience difficulties reintegrating into society.

My research shows that some deported Pacific islanders with criminal histories may turn “back to what they know” in the absence of support, which at times means involvement in the drug trade if there are no other means of gainful employment.

In countries like Tonga where there is an escalating methamphetamine problem and a lack of employment opportunities, this is understandably concerning.

Tonga, like other Pacific countries, struggles to fund organisations that crucially assist with deported peoples’ reintegration needs in order to prevent the risk of (re)offending. The countries deporting these individuals (such as the US, New Zealand or Australia) rarely provide any assistance, despite repeated requests from Pacific governments and non-governmental organisations.

Can these countries negotiate instead?

Countries can push back against Trump’s decisions to deport their citizens. Colombia was the first to do so, when President Gustavo Petro initially refused to allow military planes carrying deported migrants to land.

Petro’s refusal was met with fury in Washington. Trump threatened a number of retaliatory trade measures, prompting Petro to eventually relent.

Pacific states have previously tried to push back against deportations during the COVID pandemic. Samoa and Tonga, for instance, used diplomatic channels to request a “pause” on removals while they grappled with the unfolding health crisis.

Australia and New Zealand complied with the request, but the US did not. Instead, it used punitive measures to force states into continue receiving deportations.

For instance, the US blacklisted Samoan and Tongan nationals from the list of states eligible for seasonal work visas, affecting these countries’ economies. They were not returned to the list until they “complied” with US removals.

International law mandates that countries accept their own citizens if they are deported. Those that refuse are deemed “deviant states”, which can cause problems for both the deporting state and returnees trapped in limbo.

However, there are other ways of delaying deportation orders.

For example, Samoa has requested additional information from the countries trying to deport Samoans and will not issue travel documents (for example, a passport) until this request is complied with. This information includes evidence of an individual’s connection to Samoa and family ties in the country.

Samoan authorities maintain this helps organisations like the Samoa Returnees Charitable Trust find their families and arrange appropriate accommodation, aiding with their reintegration.

Countries like Colombia and Samoa are acting in the interests of their citizens. While many have legitimate concerns about returnees potentially turning to crime once they are in their home countries, these states also want to challenge the perception that all migrants are criminals.

As Petro, the Colombian president, was quick to point out:

They are Colombians. They are free and dignified, and they are in their homeland where they are loved […] The migrant is not a criminal. He is a human being who wants to work and progress, to live life.