Chinese-Australian voters were key to Labor’s win in 2022. Are some now swinging back to the Liberals?

Chinese-Australian voters were pivotal to Labor’s win in the 2022 election, with the swing against the Liberals in several key marginal seats almost twice that of other seats.

Many traditionally pro-business Liberal supporters switched sides in protest against the Coalition’s anti-China rhetoric under then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison. This exacerbated the widespread anti-Chinese racism many people felt in the wake of the COVID pandemic.

A new survey by Sydney Today, a digital Chinese-language media outlet, suggests Labor will most likely retain the support of many of these Chinese-Australian voters.

Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the 3,000 respondents in the ongoing survey have said they would vote for Labor in the upcoming federal election, while just 27% were backing the Liberals, 2% the Greens and 5% independents.

If these results mirror the views of the wider Chinese-Australian community, it bodes well for Labor’s prospects, at least in seats with a high concentration of Chinese-Australian voters.

However, Labor may not succeed in improving on its performance in the last election. One in five voters said they would vote differently this time compared to 2022, with 55% of this group indicating they would switch from Labor to the Coalition and just 18% going the other way.

When asked why they were changing their vote, 51% said economic management, while 26% said Australia–China relations.

Survey respondents were predominantly first-generation migrants from China. Nearly four in five were born outside Australia, but have lived here for more than ten years. Most (73%) were Australian citizens and eligible to vote.

What issues are most important

The 2021 census counted approximately 1.39 million Australian residents with Chinese heritage, around 536,000 of whom were born in mainland China. As this group continues to grow rapidly, first-generation Chinese-Australians are becoming a significant political force.

The survey results reveal a complex and shifting picture of party loyalties and preferences among these voters.

Participants were asked to identify one issue out of a list of 17 that concerns them most in this election. This list included things such as housing, income, taxes, welfare, health, education, immigration and the environment. The economy ranked first with 14% of respondents, followed closely by Australia–China relations (12%).

The fact that many Chinese-Australians see the Liberals as better economic managers may account for the shift back to the party among some swing voters.

Yet, most Chinese-Australians seem to agree Labor has handled Australia–China relations much better than the Liberals. This may be why the majority of respondents overall have preferred to stick with Labor.

About 70% of respondents said they would consider voting for a party that is friendly to Chinese-Australian communities, while 72% said they would consider voting for a party that adopts a moderate approach to China.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, long a hardline critic of the Chinese Communist Party, has attempted to soften his stance in the lead-up to this election. He said last year, for instance, he was “pro-China” and wanted to see the trade between the two countries double.

In recent days, however, he has attacked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for his “weak” response to the presence of a Chinese research vessel off the coast of Australia.

Some Chinese-Australian voters would prefer Australia to adopt a more independent foreign policy that is less reliant on the US for its national security. Research suggests Chinese-Australians tend to be more critical of the bipartisan AUKUS agreement with the United States and United Kingdom than the general public.

And I’ve observed anecdotal evidence in conversations with Chinese-Australian voters suggesting some are unhappy with both major parties’ positions on China and the US. This is convincing a small number of rusted-on Labor supporters to consider voting for the Greens, minor parties or independents.

Support for Chinese candidates not a guarantee

There is a widespread assumption that ethnic voters tend to vote for a candidate who shares their cultural or ethnic background. This seems to be the thinking behind both major parties’ choice of candidates to run in electorates with high concentrations of Chinese voters.

The Liberals’ preselection of Grange Chung (Reid), Scott Yung (Bennelong), and Howard Ong (Tangney) are cases in point.

But the survey indicates this may not be a foolproof strategy. When asked whether they would support a candidate on the basis of their Chinese or Asian appearance, respondents were split down the middle. Only slightly more than half (52%) said they would.

Much can change between now and election day on May 3. Whether the Liberals can retain the small swing they seem to have gained among Chinese-Australians may depend on Dutton’s stance on China. They will no doubt be watching closely to see what he says.