A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ?

Trying to capitalise on the electoral success of US President Donald Trump, now that his policies are having real-world effects, is proving to be a big mistake for conservative leaders.

Australian voters have delivered a landslide win for the incumbent Labor Party, returning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for a second term with a clear majority of seats.

When he said in his victory speech that Australians had “voted for Australian values”, an unspoken message was that they’d firmly rejected Trumpian values.

Meanwhile, opposition and Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton had such a bad election he lost his own seat. While not the only reason for his electoral demise, Dutton’s adoption of themes associated with Trump backfired.

As recently as mid-February, however, it was a completely different story. Opinion polls were projecting Dutton’s Coalition to win. Betting markets followed suit, pricing in a change of government.

But by March, Labor had pulled ahead in the polls, and exceeded expectations in the election itself. As one commentator put it, the Liberals were “reduced to a right-wing populist party that is all but exiled from the biggest cities”.

Reversal of fortune

Where, then, did Dutton go wrong? Commentators identified a number of reasons, including his “culture wars” and being depicted by Labor as “Trump-lite”.

Following a Trumpian pathway turned out to be a strategic blunder. And Dutton’s downfall mirrors Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s defeat in Canada’s election on April 28.

In January, Canada’s incumbent centre-left Liberals were heading for defeat to the Conservatives. But there were two gamechangers: the Liberals switched leaders from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney, and Trump caused a national uproar with his aggressive tariffs and his call for Canada to become the 51st US state.

Pre-election opinion polls then did a dramatic flip in favour of the Liberals, who went on to win their fourth election in a row.

Poilievre’s campaign had adopted elements of the Trump style, such as attacking “wokeness” and using derogatory nicknames for opponents.

His strategy failed as soon as Trump rolled out “America First” policies contrary to Canadians’ economic interests and national pride. The takeaway for serious right-wing leaders in liberal democracies is clear: let Trump do Trump; his brand is toxic.

Not a universal trend

Trump’s actions are harming America’s allies. His tariffs, disregard for the rule of law, and tough policies on migrants, affirmative action and climate change have seen voters outside the US react with self-protective patriotism.

A perceived association with Trump’s brand has now upended the electoral fortunes of (so far) two centre-right parties that had been in line to win, and had been banking on the 2024 MAGA success somehow rubbing off on them.

Admittedly, what has been dubbed the “Trump slump” isn’t a universal trend.

In Germany, the centre-left Social Democratic-led government was ousted in February, in spite of Trump ally Elon Musk’s unhelpful support for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

And in the United Kingdom, the populist Reform UK party has risen above 25%, while Labour has fallen from 34% in last year’s election to the low 20s in recent polls.

But other governing centre-left parties are seeing an upside of the Trump effect. Norway’s next election is on September 8. In early January it looked like the incumbent Labour Party would be trounced by the Conservatives and the right-wing Progress Party.

Opinion polls dramatically flipped in early February, however, boosting Labour from below 20% back into the lead, hitting 30%. If that trend is sustained, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will get another term in office.

Denmark’s governing Social Democrats have enjoyed a small polling boost, too, since Trump declared he’d like to take Greenland off their hands.

Lessons for NZ’s left and right

The common denominator underlying these shifts to the left seems to be the Trump effect. Voters in countries normally closely allied with the US are turning away from Trump-adjacent politicians.

In 2024, elections tended to go against incumbents. But, for now at least, people are rallying patriotically around centre-left, sitting governments.

Ironically, Trump is harming leaders who could have been his allies. Unrepentant as always, the man himself seemed proud of the impact he had in Canada.

In Australia and New Zealand, polls in mid-2024 showed support for Trump was growing – heading well above 20%. Australia’s election suggests that trend may now be past its peak.

In New Zealand, with debate over ACT’s contentious Treaty Principles Bill behind it, and despite NZ First leader Winston Peters’ overt culture-war rhetoric (which may appeal to his 6% support base), the right-wing coalition government’s polling shows it could be on track for a second term – for the time being.

While the Trump effect may have benefited centre-left parties in Australia and Canada, polling for New Zealand’s Labour opposition is softer than at the start of the year.

While “America First” policies continue to damage the global economy, centre-right leaders who learn the lesson will quietly distance themselves from the Trump brand, while maintaining cordial relations with the White House.

Centre-left leaders, however, could do worse than follow Anthony Albanese’s example of not getting distracted by “Trump-lite” and instead promoting his own country’s values of fairness and mutual respect.