Liberal Party reclaims Goldstein – how Tim Wilson turned back the Teal tidal wave

Tim Wilson’s victory over independent MP Zoe Daniel to reclaim his Melbourne seat of Goldstein has grabbed post-election headlines.

He is the only Liberal to achieve such a feat since six Teals stormed inner-city blue-ribbon seats at the 2022 election. Wilson’s return to parliament has triggered talk of a possible tilt for the Liberal Party leadership.

How remarkable was his victory in Goldstein? Could his successful campaign be a template for other Liberals hoping to seize back territory from the Teals?

Coalition fightback

Other coalition candidates also triumphed over high-profile independents.

The Liberal Party has retained Bradfield, with Gisele Kapterian edging out Teal candidate Nicolette Boele.

Frontbencher Dan Tehan held off a strong challenge from Alex Dyson in Wannon. Likewise, backbencher Pat Conaghan, who was challenged by Caz Heise in Cowper.

Meanwhile in Kooyong, Amelia Hamer fell just short of Teal MP Monique Ryan.

Growing support

Despite the setbacks in some seats, the community independents movement is stronger than ever in 2025.

Curtin’s Kate Chaney was widely tipped to lose her seat, but she was returned with a small two-party preferred swing.

Other crossbenchers are back in Clark, Indi, Mackellar, Mayo, Warringah and Wentworth.

Independent Dai Le who is not aligned with the Teals, was returned in Fowler. So, too, Andrew Gee in Calare.

Independents received strong support from a number of quarters.

Climate 200 funded 35 candidates, up from 22 three years ago. The Regional Voices Fund supported 13 non-metropolitan independents. The volunteer armies knocking on doors were larger than ever before.

Voters responded. On the latest count, Labor’s primary vote was less than 35%, while support for the Liberal Party declined to around 32%. Minor parties and independents picked up 33% of the vote, with the Teals doing particularly well, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green:

All these Teals won from second place last time. This time they are winning from first place.

Wilson’s success in Goldstein bucked these national trends. So how did he do it?

Learning the lessons from 2022

At the last electon, Wilson ran using the same messaging as the national campaign – national security and the economy.

Wilson repeatedly referred to Daniel as a Climate 200 “fake independent” and reframed the local focus of independents as “parochial”. His campaign was negative and unsuccessful.

Wilson’s 2025 campaign had a distinct shift in tone. It is clear that he learned many lessons from his Teal rival.

This time around, he embraced social media with a focus on community and “listening”. Despite a reputation for being combative, his posts showed a positive, hyper-local campaign that did not mention his rival at all.

When he tapped into national themes, he focused on low inflation, affordable homes and community safety.

Like the Teals, he also managed to muster an army of volunteers. These grassroots efforts began almost a year before the election, kicked off with forums to hear from the community. Door knocking and high visibility across the electorate made a difference.

The Jewish vote

Goldstein is home to a significant concentration of Jewish voters and securing their vote was vital.

The Israel-Gaza conflict, and the firebombing attack on the orthodox Adass Israel synagogue in nearby Ripponlea, brought the issue of antisemitism to the fore in the lead up to the campaign.

For Wilson, this was the only issue on which he went negative. Daniel’s campaign described his line of attack as “brutal, hostile and abusive”.

But it paid off with Wilson recording swings of up to 7.56% across Caulfield and Elsternwick, where the Jewish population is largest. This enabled him to recover much of the ground lost in 2022.

Teal campaign more negative

Daniel’s task as an independent MP was to convince voters she delivered for her community. But this was difficult to showcase, given the crowded nature of the crossbench in the 47th parliament.

Daniel still had a strong grassroots movement behind her. But her messages about Dutton, emphasising his hard man, “Trumpian” character, brought a more negative tone to her campaign.

Daniel recorded large swings of up to 10% in suburbs such as Moorabbin and Bentleigh, which have a lower socio-economic base than the other parts of the electorate and have traditionally voted Labor.

But the “Golden Mile” that stretches along the bay from Brighton to Black Rock swung heavily toward Wilson. In wealthier suburbs, such as Hampton, he secured swings of up to 10% in the two-party preferred count.

With such narrow margins, these shifts were enough to change the outcome.

Building momentum

Wilson won in part by adopting the campaign strategies used by the Teals. We should expect to see more candidates – including from the major parties – using these tools in future elections.

Despite Daniel’s defeat, support for community candidates grew in 2025. But to overcome institutional barriers and the vagaries of preferences, independents will need to continue to build on their momentum.

In 2028, the new election donations laws will also be in effect, which will limit the war chests raised by community independents.

Campaigning skills and strategy will prove more important than ever.