Can Chalmers extract a serious deregulation agenda from reform roundtable?

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has three challenges with his economic reform roundtable, which is all about how to improve Australia’s productivity, budget sustainability and economic resilience.

First, he must manage what has become a tsunami of wish lists.

Second, during the three days (August 19–21) he needs, among the clashing views, to extract some broad agreement on enough meaningful changes to be able to claim afterwards that the gathering was more than a talkfest.

Third, he has to keep the prime minister on side in an exercise the treasurer has very much made his own.

Chalmers is putting an enormous amount of effort into this roundtable. In a fortnight from late July he has met or will meet about 75 CEOs and industry representatives, from the retail, banking, telecommunications, resources, transport, superannuation and technology sectors.

Over a longer period, in the run up to the roundtable there are 41 ministerial mini-roundtables to consider specific reform areas. These cover everything from women’s economic reform, and health, disability and ageing, to home affairs, and housing (with seven roundtables devoted to it alone). The patience of Chalmers’ colleagues must be stretched.

Some 900 submissions have been received for the roundtable, itself relatively small, with participants crowded into the cabinet room at parliament house.

As well as the delegates, Chalmers this week has announced another list of invitees to particular sessions. For example, former chief of the Productivity Commission Michael Brennan will be at the discussion on regulation and approvals, and former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Rod Sims will attend the competition session.

Predictable themes and proposals are being put forward in submissions. Business wants tax reforms and spending efficiencies; the unions are pushing changes to negative gearing and benefits for workers.

Many players, including Chalmers himself, will highlight reducing the regulatory burden. The drive to cut red tape is currently all the fashion – with Chalmers spruiking the book Abundance, with its deregulatory theme – but it’s neither new nor easy. The Abbott government had red tape “repeal days”, under then parliamentary secretary Josh Frydenberg. Labor’s finance spokesman at the time, Tony Burke, dismissed that exercise as “lots of fanfare but no real reform”.

The deregulation and other productivity reforms Chalmers wants to see involve the states and local government, always tricky to wrangle in practice. There are also plenty of groups who, when faced with plans to deregulate, will lobby for keeping particular regulations, or imposing more.

It is not just a matter of reducing red tape – it is limiting it from taking over new areas. There are sharp differences about how much artificial intelligence (AI) needs to be regulated, which will be canvassed at the roundtable.

Regulations spread like ivy, needing never-ending pruning to eradicate or control them. In the housing sector in particular, excessive regulation is contributing to the crisis of unaffordability and scarcity. Even if Chalmers achieves consensus, implementation will be the real test.

Chalmers has outlined “guardrails” for proposals. They should address the national interest, rather than sectional interests; be budget neutral, or positive for the budget; and be specific and practical. Unsurprisingly, many proposals are ignoring the budget-neutral guardrail.

The discussion around the roundtable has homed in on tax. Business is suspicious the government has an agenda here, especially after the (inadvertent) leak of treasury advice saying taxes need to go up.

While in theory almost all taxes are on the table, in practice it’s clear the government won’t be touching the GST. The Productivity Commission, in one of a bevy of reports before the roundtable, has put forward a radical plan that would cut company tax for smaller businesses, while the largest 500 companies would pay more. Chalmers’ attitude to using company tax changes to promote investment remains to be seen.

The roundtable will not produce a communique. On tax however, what to watch for will be areas where the government is requested by the meeting (or takes upon itself) to do further work.

Asking the prime minister this week about the roundtable, a journalist rather cheekily said Chalmers was “going to be spending your political capital from the election campaign”. “How much are you willing to see done here? Are you willing to take a really significant reform agenda from this roundtable?” the reporter asked.

Albanese did not sound too happy with the questioning. “It’s not a meeting of the cabinet,” he said. “It’s a meeting in the cabinet room.”

The prime minister will open the roundtable and the two are in constant touch about it – however both know it is the treasurer’s gig. Chalmers, who frequently and positively references the PM when talking about the meeting, will work hard to ensure Albanese takes on ownership of outcomes, so they are followed through by the cabinet. Albanese will have a careful eye on how things are likely to go down with the public. He will be equally alert to the fact his treasurer is seeking to put down some personal markers.