Iran is under pressure from Australia at a pivotal moment – time is running out to strike a nuclear deal

In an extraordinary announcement, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Iran directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia, including the firebombing of a synagogue, in an attempt to sow discord and undermine social cohesion in the country.

Iran’s ambassador has been expelled, and Australia said it would suspend operations of its embassy in Tehran.

Australia will also list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, as have the United States and Canada.

What is the IRGC?

The IRGC is a branch of Iran’s armed forces, operating under Article 150 of the Iranian constitution. Established in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution and prior to the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88), the IRGC played a central role in defending Iran during the eight-year conflict with its neighbour.

Today, the IRGC comprises five main branches: the ground forces, aerospace force, navy, Basij (a paramilitary group) and Quds Force.

The Quds Force, which enjoys a high degree of autonomy, is tasked with coordinating Tehran’s support for allied groups across the Middle East. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.

Western intelligence agencies have also accused the IRGC and its affiliates of involvement in covert or destabilising activities abroad.

The UK’s security minister, Dan Jarvis, said in March that British authorities had foiled 20 Iranian-linked plots since 2022, many directed through IRGC-controlled intelligence networks using local proxies in the UK.

IRGC allies, such as Hezbollah, have also been accused of undertaking terrorist attacks in the past.

One such attack was the bombing of the Argentinian Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA), a Jewish community centre, in Buenos Aires in 1994. The attack killed 85 people.

Argentina’s highest criminal court said last year the bombing was designed by Iran in retaliation for Argentina reneging on a nuclear cooperation deal. Iran has denied any involvement.

The United States and Canada have designated the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, with Australia now appearing set to follow suit. Other Western countries may soon adopt similar measures.

Impact on Iran-Australia relations

Despite Tehran’s strained ties with other Western powers, Australia had historically managed to maintain relatively stable diplomatic relations with Iran. Australia has had a diplomatic presence in Iran since 1968, while Iran has had an embassy in Canberra since 1971.

The decision to cut ties with Tehran and expel its ambassador is an unprecedented step. As Australian officials noted, this is the first time since the second world war Canberra has expelled an ambassador.

Tehran is expected to firmly reject the allegations, dismissing them as baseless and politically motivated. It is also likely to denounce Australia’s actions as hostile and harmful to bilateral relations.

Iran’s motivations for instigating antisemitic attacks of this nature in Australia remain unclear.

Tehran has not previously been accused of carrying out terrorist operations on Australian soil, though security agencies said they disrupted a plot in 2023 allegedly targeting an Iranian-Australian critic of the regime. At the time, Iran’s embassy in Canberra vehemently rejected the accusations.

Albanese said the Iranian operations were aimed at undermining social cohesion in Australia. “They put lives at risk, they terrified the community and they tore at our social fabric,” he said. “Iran and its proxies literally and figuratively lit the matches and fanned the flames.”

Iran has previously been accused of attempting to sow discord in other Western countries, most notably the United States on the eve of the 2024 presidential election.

However, it remains unclear how Iran would stand to benefit from targeting Australia’s social fabric, particularly at this moment, with a reformist government in power in Tehran that has proclaimed wanting to reduce tensions with the West over its nuclear program.

Pressure ramping up on Tehran

This is a pivotal time for Iran and its nuclear program. This week, the Iranian Foreign Ministry reiterated its readiness to engage in talks with European partners “to reach the best solution” over its controversial program. Geneva is also set to host a new round of nuclear discussions between Iran and the UK, France and Germany.

Washington and its allies are demanding Iran halt all uranium enrichment activities, while Tehran insists it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.

After five rounds of negotiations earlier this year, tensions escalated in June when the United States launched airstrikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities —operations publicly supported by Australia.

At the same time, European powers are preparing to reimpose UN-mandated sanctions on Iran that were lifted a decade ago if it doesn’t meet several conditions, including resuming negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.

In addition, there are growing signs Israel is preparing for another military confrontation with Iran.

With tensions mounting, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has sounded defiant. He rejected calls for Iran to reform its foreign policy, blaming the West instead for seeking to “create discord” within Iran.

Against this backdrop, Australia’s announcement will likely add momentum to the push for broader Western alignment against Iran, further isolating Tehran in the international arena.