Thailand has another new prime minister and an opening for progress. But will anything change?

Thai politics is often chaotic. But this past week has been especially tumultuous, even by Thailand’s standards.

In a matter of days, Thailand has seen one prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ousted by the country’s top court. And following a great deal of intrigue and horse-trading, a new prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has finally been elected.

Anutin, a conservative tycoon who led the fight to legalise medicinal cannabis use, was elected by parliament after securing the backing of the progressive People’s Party in a surprise move.

Despite a leader being agreed on, there will be little stability in the new arrangement. Anutin will lead a shaky minority government, as many of his conservative values and policies are in direct opposition to those of his new backers.

The deal also requires a snap election within the next four months, once some constitutional questions have been settled.

The People’s Party has demanded Anutin commit to constitutional reform in exchange for its support. So, there is a chance democratic changes might finally be achieved. But Anutin could also renege on the deal once in power, if he can peel away enough MPs from other parties to sustain his government.

This would not be surprising. The country’s conservative forces have a long history of undermining the will of the people.

An all-powerful court

This political drama was put in motion after Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed from office last Friday by the powerful and conservative Constitutional Court over violations of ethics standards.

Paetongtarn is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was himself ousted by a military coup in 2006.

Since the Constitutional Court was established in 1997, it has toppled five prime ministers linked to the Shinawatra clan, in addition to dissolving 111 political parties, often linked to popular, pro-democracy politicians.

The court has dissolved three parties linked to the Shinawatras, as well as both progressive predecessors of the People’s Party. This includes Move Forward, which won the most seats in the last general election in 2023 but was prevented from taking power.

Thailand also has a history of military coups, with at least 12 over the past century. Not only was Thaksin’s government overthrown by a coup, so was his sister Yingluck’s government in 2014.

What did the People’s Party demand?

After Paetongtarn’s dismissal, the coalition government formed by Pheu Thai, the Shinawatra family’s party, and Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party fell apart. In the political vacuum, the People’s Party emerged as kingmaker.

Despite its popularity, the People’s Party has been repeatedly stymied in its attempts to promote constitutional reform by the potent conservative forces in Thai society.

In exchange for supporting Anutin’s rise to prime minister, the People’s Party laid out several key conditions for the new government:

• it must dissolve parliament within four months and hold a new election

• it must organise a referendum, if required by the Constitutional Court, to allow parliament to amend the constitution

• if no referendum is required, it must work with the People’s Party to expedite the process of moving towards drafting a new constitution.

The People’s Party also committed against joining the new coalition government or taking any ministerial seats in cabinet.

This plan would allow the People’s Party to put forward its candidates for prime minister at the snap election, which it is restricted from doing in the current parliamentary vote by the constitution.

Read more: Explainer: why was the winner of Thailand's election blocked from becoming prime minister?

Thaksin flees again

Adding to the political turmoil, 76-year-old Thaksin Shinawatra abruptly left the country on his private jet on Thursday, heading for his mansion in Dubai.

Thaksin, who had previously spent 15 years in self-imposed exile to avoid legal charges, was acquitted in late August over charges he violated Thailand’s oppressive lèse-majesté law. Under Section 112 of Thailand’s Criminal Code, anyone found guilty of insulting the monarchy can receive up to 15 years in jail.

His acquittal initially suggested that a détente between the Shinawatras and conservative forces supporting the military and monarchy may have been back on track. But the removal of his daughter from office suggested these forces were keen to demonstrate they still held powerful cards.

Thaksin had been due to return to the Supreme Court next week in a separate case that could have seen him jailed. He said on social media he would return to Thailand for the court date on Tuesday, but whether he does so remains to be seen.

Where to now?

If the agreement between Anutin and the People’s Party holds, Thailand could see some movement towards constitutional reform, followed by a new election.

The People’s Party will likely win any election held, but whether its leader will be allowed to become prime minister is another question.

Since its predecessor was dissolved in 2024, its MPs have softened their rhetoric over reforming the lèse-majesté law. But there is little doubt conservative forces in Thailand still see the progressive policies and supporters of the party as a threat to their privileged status in society. They can be expected to use all means at their disposal to ensure the party doesn’t assume power.

Given the turmoil, another question is whether the military will step in, as it has in the past, to take control.

When asked about the military’s potential role in the current political negotiations, the Second Army commander said “the military has no plans for a coup”.

This will hardly be reassuring to Thais who have lived through more coups and removals of governments than they can count.