What will it take? The sweeteners Australia could offer Turkey to snatch COP31

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was diplomatic on his return to Australia this week when quizzed about the ongoing negotiations for the COP31 climate summit with rival Turkey.

“We’re just engaging through,” Albanese told The Guardian. “A clear majority of nations want Australia’s bid, but it’s clear also that this is a complex situation and we’ve got to try and resolve it.”

Behind the scenes, what geopolitical sweeteners could Australia offer to Turkey to encourage it to retire gracefully from the race to host COP31? This will be the focus of talks between Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Pacific leaders when they meet in Sydney later this week.

Pointy end of negotiations

COP meetings are the world’s largest annual climate change gathering. There, governments negotiate to cut emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

If Australia’s bid succeeds, the COP31 summit would be held in Adelaide late next year. It would be the largest diplomatic meeting this country has ever hosted.

COP hosting rights alternate between groups of nations. Australia is in the “Western European and Others group”, whose turn it is to host the summit. Australia’s bid has support from 23 of the 28 countries in our group.

But if consensus is not reached with Turkey – which is also in the group – the conference will be held in the German city of Bonn. Bonn has the capacity to step in, because it regularly hosts interim climate meetings.

So far, neither nation has backed down. At last month’s UN General Assembly in New York, Albanese tried but failed to meet Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, Bowen met with Turkey’s climate minister, Murat Kurum, and Turkey’s first lady, Emine Erdoğan, who is a key player in her country’s bid.

Kurum has said his country is working on “innovative solutions” to the impasse, arguing both Australia and Turkey can win from negotiations over next year’s summit. But he’s offered no detail.

What could Australia offer Turkey?

All this raises the question of how Australia could convince Turkey to drop its bid.

Australia could, for example, offer Turkey hosting rights for a “pre-COP” meeting, usually held ahead of the main event. These meetings are attended by thousands of people. For example, when the UK co-hosted COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 with Italy, Italy hosted the youth and climate summit in the leadup.

But it’s likely Turkey wants a political gathering of world leaders – a meeting Australia would also be loathe to lose.

Australia could also offer diplomatic concessions to Turkey that are completely unrelated to COP, such as backing its bid for other UN roles, or giving funding for aid and development.

This occurred ahead of the COP26 conference bid in 2021, when the UK faced a similar impasse with Turkey. UK officials offered a package of incentives, such as promising to host a Turkish investment conference in London and backing Turkish candidates for several international and UN posts.

Another option is for Australia to hold the COP presidency and act as official host, but allow Turkey to hold some meetings linked to the summit.

Climate credibility on the line

Australia is bidding to co-host this COP with Pacific nations. So, what Australia offers Turkey will in part be determined by Pacific leaders.

Pacific leaders, for their part, recently wrote to Turkey asking it to “clear the way” for the Australia-Pacific bid.

Pacific governments will want an event in their region to promote Pacific priorities and attract international finance for their clean energy transitions.

There’s much for Australia to gain by hosting COP31. It positions Australia as a top-tier global citizen and climate leader. It also offers Australia a chance to broker pledges beneficial to its interests – such as promoting global cooperation around sustainably processed “green iron”. It could also attract international investment to our clean energy transition.

But Australia’s reputation will also be on the line. Australia is one of the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporters and is still approving heavily emitting projects, such as the North West Shelf gas project in Western Australia.

This record will be heavily scrutinised if Australia wins the COP. The meeting should be the moment Australia signals a vital shift: from a fossil fuel heavyweight to a clean energy superpower.