pressure on embattled Ley to do a deal on EPBC reform

Sussan Ley will survive “the killing season”, as commentators dub the fag end of the political year. But she’s in bad shape.

In an Essential poll published this week, Ley polled just 13% when people were asked who, from a list, would be best to lead the Liberal Party.

On 10% each were Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, with Angus Taylor on only 7%. Tim Wilson (who defeated teal Zoe Daniel to return to parliament) was on 3%, behind teal MP Allegra Spender at 4%. A whopping 42% weren’t sure about anyone.

Ley’s poor judgement and the unwillingness of some colleagues to support her publicly were highlighted again this week, when she called for Anthony Albanese to apologise for wearing a T-shirt celebrating the band Joy Division, as he exited his plane after his trip to the United States.

Joy Division was the name given to brothels in Nazi concentration camps where women were forced into sexual slavery. The shirt had been highlighted on “Sky After Dark” (where Ley has critics she may hope to placate) the night before she took up the matter.

But, as with her call last week for Kevin Rudd to lose his ambassadorship after the incident with Donald Trump, some of Ley’s Coalition colleagues obviously disagreed when they faced the inevitable questions over her latest foray. Once again, the embattled Ley had overreached.

If she is not to go into Christmas in even worse shape than she’s in now, Ley has to meet two immediate challenges. She must have the opposition settle its position on net zero. And she needs it to reach an agreement with the government on proposed changes to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) act.

Net zero is by far the more fraught of these two challenges, and the internal fractures are dangerous and deep.

The Nationals’ federal council meets this weekend and is set to pass a motion condemning net zero. The Nationals parliamentary Party is moving to an early decision.

More generally, Coalition parliamentarians are in the middle of intense discussions about the way forward, with an opportunity on Friday for all-comers to state their views at a special meeting called by the Coalition’s policy committee for the Australian economy. Some Nationals have complained they can’t attend because of commitments around the federal council.

Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who did the net zero deal with the Nationals in 2021, is now endorsing a reteat. He posted on social media Wednesday,

“It’s common sense to ensure our policy settings are right and practical for the world as it is, not as it was or what you would like to pretend it is. That’s where you find the national interest. Net Zero at any cost on any rigid timetable is not policy, it’s just ideology.”

Despite Dan Tehan, who is leading a review of the Opposition’s energy policy, suggesting time is needed to get it right, it would be a disaster for the Liberals, and the Coalition as a whole, not to have clarity about its position by Christmas.

For his part Environment Minister Murray Watt wants to have a settlement on his proposed changes to the EPBC act by year’s end.

Watt is making it clear he will do a deal with whichever of the opposition or the Greens is willing to come closer to what the government wants.

Both have issues with the bill, which the government is introducing on Thursday.

Watt’s plan is to have the bill pass the House of Representatives next week. His aim is then for a short Senate inquiry and, assuming a deal, to pass the bill through the Senate in the final sitting week, which is at the end of November.

The pressure is on Ley to do the deal. Business also has problems with some features of the bill, but wants an agreement reached because the present approvals process for projects seriously hampers development. But business wants the deal done between the “parties of government” – that is, with the Coalition rather than the Greens.

That would give the outcome more certainty into the future – a key consideration for business – as well as being more acceptable in terms of detail than whatever a deal with the Greens would entail.

Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black told Sky News on Wednesday,

“It is so important that it’s the two parties of government that ultimately make the call and support a position if it is to go ahead. And that is so that you get that longevity in terms of outcomes, you get that balance that comes of knowing that you’ve got those parties of government engaged”.

So far, before the horse-trading has begun in earnest, there have been more than a dozen meetings between Watt and the opposition, Greens and other crossbenchers. Watt is encouraged by his discussions with shadow environment minister Angie Bell and the Greens Sarah Hanson-Young

The government says that under current provisions average approval times have blown out by more a year – to be more than two years – since 2004. It estimates its proposed reforms to facilitate developments, ranging from housing projects to wind farms, could inject up to $7 billion into the economy.

When she was environment minister Ley commissioned the report from Graeme Samuel, on which the proposed changes are based. She will be marked down by the business community if she can’t now help get these changes (belatedly) done.