Turkey will host COP31, Australia will play a role. So where does that leave the Pacific?

After a long and deadlocked bidding process for Australia and Pacific Island nations to co-host the UN climate summit (COP31), the event will now be hosted by Turkey. Australia’s Climate Minister, Chris Bowen, will reportedly take a key role as “COP President for negotiations”. More details are yet to emerge.

The announcement is more complex than expected, even for the often labyrinthine world of global, multilateral event negotiations. But what will this arrangement mean for Australia’s commitment to partnering with Pacific nations in delivering COP31?

COP31 was expected by many to be the first “Pacific COP”, offering Australia an opportunity to rebuild its credibility on climate action and support Pacific island nations on the frontline of the climate crisis. The challenge of the original COP31 bid was always how to ensure it wasn’t an Australian summit with symbolic Pacific participation. Now, the situation is even more complex.

This new arrangement could still amplify Pacific leadership on the world stage and demonstrate the value in regional action. But with Turkey the official host country, and Australia serving as the COP31 President, where does this leave the Pacific? Will a proposed pre-COP meeting in a Pacific country be enough?

Pacific climate leaders

Pacific nations have been leading on ambitious, science-based climate action for decades, despite contributing only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Their track record speaks for itself. Pacific diplomacy secured the landmark 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement. While this target is existential for Pacific islands facing rising seas, it is globally relevant to ensuring all countries avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Australia’s own vulnerability is clear from its first national risk assessment released in September this year.

More recently, law students based in Vanuatu led the efforts that resulted in the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on the obligations of states with respect to climate change. This landmark legal opinion found the 1.5°C temperature target is legally binding. All states, in particular the largest emitters, must take ambitious emissions reduction measures in line with the best available science, the court found.

The Pacific has also led efforts to recognise the role of oceans in global climate policy. Pacific islanders recognise what science confirms: healthy oceans are essential for limiting global warming and supporting the health and prosperity of coastal communities.

Pacific nations have long advocated for a holistic approach that links climate action with ocean and nature protection - most recently through the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration that advances a distinctly Pacific framework for regional security and cooperation.

For the Pacific, climate action isn’t an economic policy debate – it’s a matter of survival. This urgency has translated into genuine innovation and ambition that Australia can learn from.

The question for COP31 now becomes: how does Australia honour its commitment to the Pacific in a host country on the other side of the world?

With Pacific nations, such as Papua New Guinea, expressing disappointment a co-hosted COP31 hasn’t eventuated, Australia will have to deliver. The Pacific was strong in its support for the initial COP31 hosting bid, and should not lose out in this new arrangement.

Based on today’s news, Australia will be in charge of the negotiations but perhaps not the broader action agenda, which could rest with Turkey. Australia needs to ensure COP31 still offers the opportunity to lift the climate talks to the standard of Pacific climate leadership and innovation and walk the talk alongside their Pacific partners. The fight for 1.5°C is both a legal obligation and a fight for survival.

The opportunity

Retaining the COP31 Presidency role provides an opportunity for Australia to advance an agenda that speaks to the priorities of the Pacific - to elevate Pacific-led perspectives and priorities on Indigenous and traditional knowledge, ocean stewardship and a fossil-free future.

A focus on the ocean plays to both regions’ strengths. They share compelling reasons to ensure COP31 delivers game-changing outcomes for ocean health, marine ecosystem protection and finance for coastal resilience.

Regional partnerships aren’t supplementary to effective climate action, they’re foundational. The pre-COP negotiations, to be hosted in the Pacific, should reflect this shared commitment in the COP31 agenda and funding commitments.

Australia’s credibility on climate won’t come from any one conference. It will come from Australia demonstrating it can listen, learn, and amplify the voices of nations that have been leading on climate action all along. Even without hosting COP31 in the region, Australia needs to maintain its commitment to partnership with the Pacific on climate action.