Tony Barry on why a new Liberal leader isn’t a quick fix

The federal Opposition is in dire straits. Sunday’s disastrous Newspoll had the Liberals on 15% primary vote, with the Nationals at 3% – well below One Nation on 27%.

Despite the Coalition reuniting over the weekend, it’s yet to provide any answers about how it will win back key groups of voters, from Gen Z and Millennials, to urban voters in general.

Sussan Ley’s leadership appears terminal, with Angus Taylor readying for an imminent challenge.

But as Tony Barry explains on today’s podcast, a new leader alone won’t solve the Liberals’ problems, which run much deeper and mostly predate Ley’s leadership.

Barry is a former senior Liberal staffer and now director of the consultancy firm Redbridge, which does extensive polling and other political research.

On what focus groups are saying about the Liberal Party, Barry says “they just kind of laugh”.

There is substantive brand damage and they don’t take the party seriously. And the reason for that, of course, is because at the moment the Coalition is full of very unserious people.

On Taylor’s expected leadership challenge, Barry says just a change in personality at the top won’t be enough to lift the party’s “almost rock bottom” position.

The problem for the Liberal Party and the Coalition generally […] is they need to get their primary vote into the 40s. Now, in real terms, you’re talking about 3.4–3.5 million voters, give or take a couple of 100,000, extra […] Now, that is a phenomenal amount out of an electoral roll of around 18 million. So will one personality be able to win those three and a half million votes? Unlikely.

[…] If there is a change of leadership, it’s only going to be a success in the medium term if they can shape an economic narrative, perhaps put out some economic reform. And give people some hope that the Coalition does have an economic plan.

On what the Coalition should do to improve its situation, Barry says taking risks and a bold economic agenda are the only options.

I saw an interview with [former prime minister] John Howard […] where he encouraged some bold policy development. And one suggestion he had was to increase the GST rate, but offset that revenue gain with significant income tax cuts.

Because if the Coalition is to appeal to that Gen Z and millennial cohort – which they need to […] they’re polling catastrophically in that group – then having a policy prescription which lets them keep more of their income […] I think is an opportunity for the Coalition to increase their primary vote.

Barry says fewer than one in five (19%) of Australians now nominate the Coalition as the best party to manage the economy – traditionally one of the Coalition’s strong suits.

You go back to the Howard and Costello government and they had a very strong equity lead on that question. And the foundation of all their success was actually on economic management. Because […] in most years, there were income tax cuts. There was significant wage growth. And these were the things that Howard and Costello leveraged to keep on getting re-elected.

On the rising One Nation vote, Barry says there’s been a “hostile takeover” from One Nation poaching Coalition votes, based on a deep frustration with the status quo. He says many voters “want to empower One Nation to shake things up”.

We asked voters “Which of the following statements best represents your view about the political system? Minor change, major change, it doesn’t need any change, or "burn it all down?” 15% of voters said “burn it down”.

45% of voters said a more moderate […] “the system requires major change”. So that gives you a mindset of where a lot of the voters are at […]

Amongst One Nation voters, which we had at 27% [of the total], 83% of those who said they were intending to vote for One Nation said “burn it all down”.

[…] That sort of frustration is manifesting itself in Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, who [voters] see as vehicles to really shake it all up, instead of this sort of almost sort of paper shuffling […] policy offerings that they’re getting from the major parties at the moment.

So as a veteran observer of federal politics, does Barry believe the next Liberal prime minister is in the Parliament today?

I think it’s quite possible. But it’s going to require an internal mindset change, not just from the Liberal Party but the Coalition as a whole, where they do make the internal trade-offs that are necessary to make themselves competitive again.

At the moment, we’re just seeing too many individuals who are […] trying to find points for internal difference, rather than [finding] that common ground […] I think it’s less about the personality and more about the focus of the party as a whole.