Want to know what’s really going on in Australian politics? A four-way tussle in Farrer may tell us

Sussan Ley has announced that, after a fortnight’s farewell tour, she will step down as the member for Farrer.

This sets the stage for what will be one of the most interesting and unpredictable byelections in Australian history. Potentially at least four candidates could have a realistic chance of winning. The byelection will be an early test of new Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s popularity, and whether One Nation can translate strong performance in opinion polls into actual votes. It will likely be held some time in April or May.

The independent challenge

At the 2025 election, Ley suffered a 9% drop in her primary vote, to 43%. Independent Michelle Milthorpe, a local teacher, picked up 20% of the vote.

Milthorpe won all the booths in Albury, the major town in Farrer (and the birthplace of the Liberal Party). But she lagged in the more remote areas.

This large electorate – four times the size of Belgium – is more difficult for a challenger to cover than a well resourced sitting member.

Milthorpe received almost two-thirds of the preferences from other candidates. This allowed her to narrow the primary vote gap. She finished with 44% of the two-candidate preferred vote, compared to Ley’s 56%.

She therefore needs a 6% swing to win the seat. This is a significant swing but the Liberals will be without any personal vote Ley has gathered over 25 years as the local member. (In 2022, when there was not a significant independent vote, Ley won 52% of the primary vote, while the Coalition Senate team only got 46% in Farrer.)

Moreover, opinion polls suggest the Liberals’ national brand has taken a big hit.

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Milthorpe has maintained her profile in the electorate since the election and has already announced she is running again.

Farrer is across the Murray River from Indi, held since 2013 by independents Cathy McGowan and then Helen Haines. Some of Haines’ supporters may well campaign for Milthorpe.

Once the Liberal vote drops into the low 40s they are vulnerable to teals and community independents. Liberal Sophie Mirabella won 45% of the primary vote in Indi in 2013 but still lost to McGowan. And high-profile Liberal Josh Frydenberg had 43% of the primary vote in Kooyong in 2022 but still lost to teal independent Monique Ryan.

Milthorpe is a serious chance to join the growing crossbench in the federal parliament.

Other likely candidates

For now, the on-again-off-again coalition between the Nationals and Liberals is on. Their agreement means they do not stand candidates against each other when there is a sitting member.

But Ley’s resignation means both parties can stand, and the Nationals have confirmed they will field a candidate. The last time there were competing Liberal and National candidates was after former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer retired in 2001. Sussan Ley was the successful Liberal candidate, but her victory margin over the Nationals candidate was a mere 0.1%.

One Nation polled 6.6% in Farrer in 2025, very similar to its share of the national vote. Given that opinion polls suggest One Nation’s national vote has risen to over 20%, it is likely to attract a much higher vote in the byelection than it did in 2025.

One Nation is likely to pick up – either on primaries or through preferences – much of the 10% that went to other right-wing parties in 2025. These include Shooters, Fishers and Farmers; Gerard Rennick People First; Family First and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots.

The Liberal and National how-to-vote cards will preference each other ahead of One Nation. But this does not mean all their voters will follow them. One Nation will be hoping they can out-poll the Nationals and then enough Nationals voters give their second preference to One Nation that the One Nation candidate overtakes the Liberal. One Nation may then get enough preferences from Liberal voters to beat the independent.

Labor has never held Farrer since the seat was created in 1949. The incumbent government almost always goes backwards at byelections. So it is highly unlikely Labor can win the seat.

But the preferences of their supporters may determine which candidate does. Whether Labor runs – and it won just 15% of first preferences at the 2025 federal election – may depend on how important they regard it to guide these preferences with how-to-vote cards. In the longer term, it is in Labor’s interests for a progressive independent to establish themselves in a seat Labor cannot win themselves.

There have been reports of some Farrer voters urging the independent member for the NSW state seat of Murray, Helen Dalton, to also run as an independent. Other reports suggest that One Nation has sounded her out about being their candidate. But it would be a big gamble to give up her state seat to become one of four or five contenders for Farrer.

If the Liberals do hold the seat, they will be saying “well done Angus”. If they lose it to a moderate independent, there may be some buyer’s remorse about replacing Ley with Taylor. If they lose it to One Nation, some will be eyeing Andrew Hastie as their next leader.