One Nation has been on the fringes of Australian politics for 30 years. Why is its popularity soaring now?

Since the 2025 federal election, poll after poll has shown surging support for right-wing populist party One Nation. The party, and its leader Pauline Hanson, have been on the Australian political scene for 30 years. Yet until recently, One Nation had never been more than a fringe group of the far right.

The latest polling shows One Nation not just leap-frogging the decimated Coalition parties, but also closing in on Labor. A new Guardian Essential poll also shows nearly 60% of Australians would be open to voting for the party at the next federal election.

Even five years ago, One Nation having that kind of appeal was unthinkable. So what has changed in the meantime?

Broad-scale political shifts, including a global anti-immigration push, are certainly aiding One Nation’s cause. Radical-right political actors such as US President Donald Trump, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni are experiencing success at the ballot box and in dominating the global policy agenda.

Issues such as immigration, increased cost of living and a general distrust in political leaders and institutions are top of voters’ minds. In Australia, recent polling shows a consistent lack of faith in the major parties.

Economic strain, grievance, fear and the aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack have created the perfect conditions for the populist party.

Is this One Nation’s breakthrough moment?

Fringe-dwellers no more

One Nation has been consistently represented in the Australian Senate since Hanson’s return to federal parliament following the 2016 double dissolution election.

However, despite intermittent surges in support, the party has never managed to win a significant number of seats in either state or federal lower houses (outside of its short-lived 1998 result in Queensland).

Read more: Can One Nation turn its polling hype into seats in parliament? History shows it will struggle

This is due to One Nation’s organisational dysfunction, as well as broader political structures, including the electoral and party system. One Nation’s organisational issues – particularly in keeping elected members inside the tent – have been well documented in research. Over the years, the party has been involved in several scandals and high-profile fallings-out between its members and its leader.

In structural terms, the position of the major parties is strengthened against challengers in Australia by our system of single member electorates paired with preferential voting. These structures reward parties with widespread, rather than concentrated, support.

The greater electoral success of many European populists such as Meloni and far-right Dutch MP Geert Wilders is in large part due to proportional electoral systems. This enables populist actors to gain consistent representation and bargaining power in coalition governments.

In Australia, declining support for the major parties is not new. At the 2025 federal election, just 66% of voters gave their first preference to Labor or the Coalition.

The 2025 Australian Election Study (AES) captures this declining attachment to the major parties. It finds only 11% and 13% of voters only ever voted for Labor or the Coalition respectively. Likewise, it reveals a record high 25% of voters do not identify as aligning with any political party.

But what is new is that One Nation is the main beneficiary of voter dissatisfaction. Alongside a growing detachment from major parties, the AES reveals only 32% of voters trust government, and only 30% report satisfaction with Australian democracy. In other words, people have deep grievances with government and democracy. This creates an opportunity for parties with anti-establishment messages.

Immigration, racism and fear

In terms of issues, immigration is consistently rated as the top concern of One Nation voters. This aligns with global far-right parties that emphasise nativist messaging, and offer simplistic explanations for economic insecurity. These messages blame an immigrant “other” and traitorous political elite for selling out a country’s “true people”.

Success for the radical right is not limited to proportional systems. Farage’s Reform Party is another example of a radical right party that is surging in a majoritarian system.

Both Reform and One Nation share a common opportunity: the collapse of centre-right competitors, and voters’ disaffection with the Labo(u)r alternatives.

Both the British Tories and the Coalition in Australia have left a vacuum of policy and leadership on the right. Scandal and instability have marred successive British governments. In Australia, the Peter Dutton-led opposition suffered the worst defeat in the Liberal Party’s history after going into the 2025 election without coherent policies.

Riven by an urban/rural divide and policy disagreements, the Coalition has split twice in the past year. Sussan Ley - its first female leader - lasted a mere nine months in the role before being replaced by Angus Taylor. Early indications suggest Taylor may try to shift the Liberals to the right to counter One Nation, especially on immigration.

Grievance and economic hardship

Like many radical right parties, One Nation has capitalised on economic grievances. Research shows economic issues are a key driver in shifting voters from the centre-right towards radical right parties.

Hanson’s frequent stunts in parliament and love of courting outrage have enabled her to remain in the spotlight through the years.

Effective social and digital media use has been core to One Nation’s issue salience. It is also a key tool for communication for populist radical right actors worldwide. What differentiates One Nation’s social media use from that of other parties is its often low-brow nature.

While social media posts heavily feature the Australian flag, the party’s lineup of “please explain” cartoons soften and make acceptable racist, misogynistic and anti-queer messaging. Recent international research suggests social media algorithms play a key role in displaying content to users and reinforcing radical right messages and attitudes.

The fragmentation of the Coalition has created fertile ground for One Nation’s surging popularity. But whether this surge is a temporary protest vote or represents a far more serious and lasting realignment of the Australian right, will depend on how effectively the major parties can rebuild their credibility. It will also depend how well they can address the economic and cultural anxieties driving voters towards radical right parties.