Fixating on a ‘magic number’ of childcare hours misses what’s most important for kids’ development

Families with kids juggling full-time work may have been alarmed by media reporting this week, suggesting “too much” time in early childhood education and care could harm their child’s development.

Data from a major Australian study, the First Five Years project, was released by the Department of Education last December. It tracked 274,000 Australian children and linked their experiences of early childhood education to their development in the first year of school.

The report found those who spent 40 hours or more a week in care were slightly more likely to be “developmentally vulnerable”, compared to the national average. But the data also showed that kids who attend formal care – which includes childcare and preschool – had notably better outcomes compared to those who didn’t attend at all.

Importantly, the report confirmed what we’ve long known: quality of care is still a stronger and more consistent predictor of a child’s outcomes than the number of hours they spend there. And parenting can be more important than both quantity and quality of childcare.

So, here’s why fixating on a “magic number” is not helpful – and what to focus on instead.

First, what does ‘developmental vulnerability’ mean?

The study uses data from the 2018 Australian Early Development Census, which reports on children’s developmental vulnerability, across five domains:

• language and cognitive skills
• communication skills and general knowledge
• social competence
• emotional maturity
• physical health and wellbeing.

A child is considered “developmentally vulnerable” in a domain if they score within the lowest 10% of the national benchmark for that domain, based on the first Australian Early Development Census data from 2009.

This is not the same as being diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental or learning disorder or intellectual disability.

So, what’s the link to hours in care?

The national average for a child in early childhood education and care is 34.2 hours a week.

Among children who attended formal child care between 30–35 hours a week, the First Five Years project found 22% were developmentally vulnerable in at least one domain.

This is comparable to the overall rate: 21.7% of all Australian children were classified as developmentally vulnerable in one or more domains.

But as hours in formal care per week increased, the risk also increased.

Among those in care for 40 hours or more a week, 26% were considered developmentally vulnerable in at least one domain. For children attending 50 hours or more, this rose to 28%.

However, the pattern was inconsistent and varied in strength, depending on the domains and individual child variables.

Above 30 hours a week, children were slightly more likely to have lower social competence or emotional maturity scores. But for all other areas of development, hours per week had little to no measurable association.

And there’s another important comparison: children who didn’t spend any time in formal care before starting school had a much higher risk, with 37% considered developmentally vulnerable in one or more domains.

So attending care is still better than not

This confirms international evidence which has established that formal early childhood education benefits children’s learning and development – particularly among disadvantaged groups.

The Australian study found children who attended formal care were consistently more likely to be “on track” across all developmental domains, compared to those who didn’t. This was true even when they attended for 30 hours or more a week.

The report shows the benefits of formal care can be even more pronounced among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, those whose families speak a language other than English, and single-parent and low-income families.

Hours per week are only part of the picture

Children attending between 10–30 hours per week were the least likely to be developmentally vulnerable across one or more domains. At 19–20%, this is less than the national average.

But hours per week are only part of the picture, and in reality, there is no “magic number”. Children’s development depends on a multitude of factors, and the First Five Years project showed that higher weekly hours are not always worse than moderate hours.

The report showed that if a child attended a high-quality service, they were more likely to be “on track” in each of the five developmental domains. This was true even for children attending for longer hours.

This finding is consistent with previous national and international evidence that higher quality produces better outcomes for children.

So, what else predicts child outcomes? Their family’s household income, parents’ education level, neighbourhood socio-economic status and more. In comparison to each of these factors, the association between hours per week and developmental outcomes – while measurable – is relatively small.

What can parents do?

Rather than focusing on a single “right” number of hours, which is just one variable, it may be more helpful to think broadly about your child’s experiences.

Large-scale international research has shown the quality of the home learning environment (including being read to, painting and drawing, and playing with songs, poems or nursery rhymes) is a stronger predictor of children’s intellectual and social development than parental education or household income. And parenting is often an even stronger predictor of child outcomes than both quality and quantity of childcare.

Research consistently shows children do best when they have a balance of high-quality early childhood education and a secure home environment, with responsive and supportive parenting.

At home, this isn’t about doing more; it’s about making the most of the daily moments you already share with your child. Playing and reading with your child, enjoying a meal together and going to the library are all great ways to boost your child’s developmental outcomes, regardless of whether they go to childcare and for how long.

Accessing a quality early childhood service is also important. Parents can look for services where the educators are responsive and warm, where staff turnover is low, and where there is a “preschool program” in place – one that is designed and delivered by a degree-qualified early childhood teacher.

If you have concerns about your child’s development, ask for feedback from their early childhood teacher. Other key contacts include your GP, paediatrician or local child and family health nurse