Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (down one).
The primary vote changes don’t suggest a two-party gain for Labor from the previous Newspoll, but the previous two Newspolls probably had Labor’s two-party estimate rounded down.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -14, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -12. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–38 (45–41 previously).
Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The plus signs are the Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted. The last three Newspolls have all had Albanese below -10 net approval, so the trend line is going down.
While Newspoll had a slight improvement for Labor, the Resolve poll below was Labor’s worst this term, and other recent polls have been poor for them. A key finding from Resolve was that by 59–13 voters said they were worse off rather than better off since the last election.
Labor’s worst Resolve poll this term
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted December 4–8 from a sample of 1,604, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by 2022 election preference flows, a one-point gain for the Coalition from the November Resolve poll estimate. This is Labor’s worst result in Resolve this term.
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 27% Labor (down three), 12% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 11% independents (steady) and 5% others (up one).
Albanese’s net approval slumped 12 points to -26, with 57% rating him poor and 31% good. Dutton’s net approval dropped seven points to -2. Albanese and Dutton were tied as preferred PM 35–35 (a 37–37 tie in November).
By 59–13, respondents said they were worse off rather than better off since the 2022 election with 28% about the same. By 36–27, they thought the Coalition and Dutton were more likely to make them better off in the next three years than Labor and Albanese. By 56–21, they thought Labor did not have their back.
The Liberals led Labor by 41–23 on economic management (41–27 in November). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 38–22, a big swing in their favour from 35–28 previously.
Resolve was taken after GDP figures were released last Wednesday. Negative media coverage of these figures may have affected voting intentions.
In additional questions from the November Resolve poll, voters supported the HECS funding changes that the government announced by 54–27. On university fees, 45% wanted them reduced with subsidies or caps, 26% wanted them completely scrapped and 19% kept the same.
Essential poll: Coalition regains lead
A national Essential poll, conducted November 27 to December 1 from a sample of 1,123, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided (48–47 to Labor in mid-November). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (steady).
The primary votes suggest little two-party change from mid-November, but respondent preferences were stronger for the Coalition.
The government was rated poor by 54–20 on increasing the amount of affordable housing, but good by 39–28 on protecting children on social media.
Over 75% thought Australia was free on religious freedom, freedom of association (right to join a union), freedom to access an abortion, freedom to protest and freedom of speech. Voters thought we had freedom from surveillance by 56–34.
Morgan poll and GDP figures
A national Morgan poll, conducted November 25 to December 1 from a sample of 1,666, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the November 18–24 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 38.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 30% Labor (down 1.5), 12.5% Greens (steady), 6.5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (steady).
The headline figure uses respondent preferences. If preferences were allocated using 2022 election flows, there would be a 50–50 tie, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported last Wednesday that GDP grew 0.3% in the September quarter, up from 0.2% in the June quarter. In the 12 months to September, GDP increased 0.8%, its lowest since the COVID recession in 2020.
The household savings ratio improved 0.8% since June to 3.2%, implying that people were saving money from real wage growth and the stage three tax cuts, rather than spending it.
MRP poll: Coalition would win more seats than Labor
A national Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) poll was jointly conducted by Redbridge and Accent Research from October 29 to November 20 from a sample of 4,909. MRP use modelling to estimate the outcomes of individual seats.
This MRP poll estimated the Coalition would win 64–78 of the 150 House of Representatives seats if an election had been held in November, with Labor winning 59–71. The Coalition would have an 82% chance of winning more seats than Labor, but only a 2% chance of winning the 76 seats needed for a majority.
In the first wave of this MRP poll, taken from February to May, Labor led the Coalition in a point estimate of seats by 78–56, but their lead dropped to 71–66 in August and now the Coalition has a 71–65 seat lead. Substantial swings to the Coalition in regional and outer suburban seats are driving its gains.
In the MRP poll, the Tasmanian regional seat of Lyons was likely to be a Coalition gain from Labor. However, an EMRS poll of the five federal Tasmanian seats has Labor well ahead in Lyons, particularly with new candidate the former Tasmanian state Labor leader Rebecca White. This poll was reported by The Australian on Friday.
Redbridge Victorian and NSW polls
The Poll Bludger reported on December 2 that a Redbridge Victorian state poll, conducted November 6–20 from a sample of 920, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since early October. Primary votes were 43% Coalition (up three), 30% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up two) and 13% for all Others (down five).
A byelection in the Greens-held Victorian state seat of Prahran will occur in early 2025 after the resignation of Green MP Sam Hibbins. At the November 2022 state election, the Greens defeated the Liberals by 62.0–38.0 in Prahran from primary votes of 36.4% Greens, 31.1% Liberals and 26.6% Labor. Labor won’t contest the byelection.
A Redbridge New South Wales state poll, conducted November 6–20 from a sample of 1,088, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, implying a four-point gain for the Coalition since the March 2023 state election. Primary votes were 41% Coalition, 37% Labor, 9% Greens and 13% for all Others.
South Korean and French government crises
In South Korea, the conservative president declared martial law on Tuesday, but avoided been impeached. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s PM was ousted in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. I covered these crises for The Poll Bludger on Sunday.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
