Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead since July 2024.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (up two). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 51.5–48.5.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 52% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid four points to -18. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 49–38 (47–38 previously).
This is Albanese’s best net approval in Newspoll since September 2024, Dutton’s worst since October 2023 and Albanese’s biggest better PM lead since May 2024. Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term with a trend line.
The budget itself was not well received, with a net 10 points saying it would be bad for the economy (zero for the previous budget in May 2024) and a net 19 points bad for you personally (two previously). However, a net nine points said the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget (six previously).
There have been three polls released since the budget, with Labor gaining the lead in Newspoll, making a big gain for a tie in Resolve, but not gaining in Freshwater. The trend in the polls to Labor prior to the budget was clear, and Newspoll and Resolve confirmed this trend. Here is the poll graph.
The gains for Labor are probably in spite of the poorly rated budget. I believe US President Donald Trump is the most important reason for Labor’s gains in the last month, owing to his tariffs and associated stock market falls.
Resolve poll: Labor makes big gain from outlier for a tie
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted March 26–29 from a sample of 3,237 (double the usual sample size), had a 50–50 tie by respondent preferences, a five-point gain for Labor from the previous Resolve poll in late February, a pro-Coalition outlier.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 29% Labor (up four), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down two), 9% independents (steady) and 5% others (up one). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51–49, a three-point gain for Labor.
Albanese’s net approval was up 11 points since February to -11, with 49% saying his performance was poor and 38% good. Dutton’s net approval slumped 15 points to -10. Albanese led Dutton by 42–33 as preferred PM, a reversal of Dutton’s 39–34 lead in February. This is Albanese’s biggest lead since April 2024.
The Liberals led Labor on economic management and keeping the cost of living low, but their leads were much reduced. They led on economic management by 36–29 (41–24 previously). On cost of living, the Liberals led by 31–27 (37–25 previously). Treasurer Jim Chalmers had a net +6 approval, while shadow treasurer Angus Taylor was at net -6.
Freshwater poll steady at 51–49 to Coalition
A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 28–30 from a sample of 1,059, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Freshwater poll two weeks ago. An unrounded figure of 50.6–49.4 to the Coalition was provided.
Primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down two) and 17% for all Others (up one). By 2022 election flows, this poll would be about a 50–50 tie.
In contrast to trends in other polls, both leaders were at -11 net approval, which was down one for Albanese and up one for Dutton. Albanese led Dutton by 46–45 as preferred PM (45.9–42.5 previously).
The Coalition led Labor by six points on cost of living, a two-point gain for Labor. They led on the economy by 11 points, a two-point gain for the Coalition.
The polls below were all conducted before Tuesday’s budget.
YouGov MRP poll puts Labor just one seat short of a majority
YouGov conducted a national MRP poll (multi-level modelling with post-stratification) from February 27 to March 26 from an overall sample of 38,629. MRP polls are used to estimate the outcome in each House of Representatives electorate using huge samples and modelling.
YouGov’s central forecast if the election were held now is Labor winning 75 of the 150 lower house seats, one short of a majority. The Coalition would win 60 seats, the Greens two, independents 11 and others two. Since YouGov’s previous MRP poll that was taken from late January to mid-February, Labor is up nine seats, the Coalition down 13 and independents up four.
The high forecast for Labor is 80 seats and 68 for the Coalition, while the low forecast is 69 for Labor and 55 for the Coalition. This poll is not a prediction of the election result, as the polls could change before the election.
The overall vote share in this MRP poll was 50.2–49.8 to Labor, a 1.9% swing to the Coalition since the 2022 election, but a 1.3% swing to Labor since the last MRP poll. Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (down 1.9), 29.8% Labor (up 0.7), 13.2% Greens (up 0.5), 9.3% One Nation (up 0.2), 8.3% independents (down 0.6) and 3.9% others (up 1.1).
Although Labor’s share of Greens and One Nation preferences has risen since the last MRP poll, by 2022 election flows this poll would have Labor further ahead, by 51.5–48.5.
Redbridge poll: Labor maintains narrow lead
A national Redbridge poll, conducted March 13–24 from a sample of 2,039, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Redbridge poll in early March. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 34% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down one) and 17% for all Others (down two).
By 54–29, voters were unable to identify something the Labor government had done since its election in May 2022 that had made their lives better. Of those who could identify something, 36% selected electricity rebates, with 11% for the next most popular.
By 35–23, voters opposed the government placing tariffs on goods imported into Australia. By 68–24, voters were concerned about Chinese naval ships sailing down Australia’s east coast and conducting live fire drills.
Seat polls of teal-held Kooyong and Goldstein
The Poll Bludger reported Saturday that JWS polled the Victorian teal-held seats of Kooyong and Goldstein “a fortnight ago” from samples of 800 each for Australian Energy Producers. In Kooyong, teal Monique Ryan led the Liberals by 51–49, while in Goldstein the Liberals led teal Zoe Daniel by 54–46.
The Kooyong poll agrees well with the YouGov MRP, but the YouGov MRP had Daniel leading by 54.5–45.5 in Goldstein. The March 8 WA election indicated the Coalition would do worse in swing terms in affluent inner city seats.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
