Google AI


Modern Australian

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right

  • Written by: Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Official figures released Wednesday show the Australian economy growing at the slowest pace since the financial crisis.

GDP growth was only 0.5% for the June quarter, meaning that in the past year output grew by a feeble 1.4%.

The figures weren’t a surprise, but they do contain a message about what can go wrong.

Australia has enjoyed 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, in part due to good management, in part due to good luck, and in part due to happy accidents of timing.

Good management

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Australian prime minister Bob Hawke, honoured at Parliament House. Lukas Coch/AAP

Credit has to be paid to the economic reforms of the Hawke-Keating era. Labor doesn’t talk about that legacy much these days, but it was a remarkable period of transformation.

From floating the Australian dollar and financial deregulation to the accord with trade unions, tariff reductions, and privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Hawke and Keating opened Australia to the world, and the world to Australia.

Without those reforms the Australian economy would look more like those of Italy, Spain, or Portugal.

And although John Howard was no pushover as a politician, he deserves credit for voting for economic reforms he believed in, even if Labor got the credit for implementing them.

Read more: Hawke was our larrikin, but also our reformer

It is worth remembering that there was a time, not so long ago, when politicians put country before party.

Good luck

We’ve also had some pretty good luck as a country. The most obvious piece of luck has been the economic awakening of China.

To have a billion people on our doorstep rapidly and radically transitioning from subsistence farming to sophisticated manufacturing and commerce, hungry for natural resources, sure helped.

Perhaps less obvious has been the rising importance of globally relevant cities around the world.

In his wonderful book, The Triumph of the City, Harvard economics professor Ed Glaeser chronicles how, as he puts it, “cities magnify humanity’s strengths”.

Modern cities, thanks in part to information technology, spur innovation like never before. They bring talent together, serve as a cradle for entrepreneurship, and provide a vehicle for socioeconomic mobility.

Australia, as a highly urbanised country with two globally relevant cities in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as several other very important cities, has benefited from the triumph of the city more than most countries.

Great timing

But perhaps the greatest piece of good luck we’ve had was timing.

We now know that we live in a low-growth, low-inflation world, known as a secular-stagnation world. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says we might have been in one for many years but failed to notice.

In Summers’s telling, secular stagnation was masked in the United States by a massive housing bubble. In Australia it was masked by a housing bubble and a once-in-a century mining boom.

But more to the point, as housing and mining waxed and waned – as these things tend to do – one always seemed to be doing well just as the other was struggling, as the following chart shows:

Helpfully out of sync. Growth in mining output and property prices

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Source: ABS So, not only have we had a “China boom”, we’ve also had a “China hedge”: a source of economic growth not fully synced with, and at times offsetting, housing booms and busts. What’s next? In eulogising his brother Robert, Edward Kennedy quoted from a speech his brother gave in South Africa in 1966, in which he said: Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely beyond our control. It is the shaping impulse of America that neither fate nor nature nor the irresistible tides of history, but the work of our own hands, matched to reason and principle, that will determine our destiny. There is pride in that, even arrogance, but there is also experience and truth. In any event, it is the only way we can live. The same might be said of Australia. We want to believe our national destiny will be shaped by good work, rather than good luck. For that to be the case, we will need to have some hard discussions about the what government can and should do in the new low growth, low inflation secular-stagnation world. This is Richard Holden’s 200th article for The Conversation.

Authors: Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Read more http://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sure-economic-growth-is-low-but-think-about-whats-gone-right-122973

Understanding a dental implant Melbourne Treatment Plan

A dental implant Melbourne patients may consider is one option for replacing a missing tooth, but suitability depends on oral health, bone support a...

How 3PL Logistics Australia Supports Faster and More Efficient Supply Chains

Why Has 3PL Logistics Become Important for Growing Businesses?  Gone are the days when supply chains were simpler and in minimal quantity. Now, the...

Common Skin Concerns and Treatment Options Available in Melbourne

Skin concerns can develop gradually or become noticeable following changes in age, lifestyle, sun exposure or hormonal factors. Pigmentation, rednes...

Why a Code-Compliant Home Can Still Feel Uncomfortable

When people build or renovate a home, they usually expect that meeting current building requirements will also produce a comfortable place to live. ...

Breach of Contract in Business: What Are Your Options?

Contracts are essential to business relationships. They establish expectations, allocate responsibilities and provide a framework for delivering goods...

How Pest Control Companies Can Rank for the Problems Customers Search First

Introduction SEO for Pest Control needs to start with the customer’s problem. Most people do not search for pest services in a neat or technical wa...

What Are the Benefits of Renovating an Older Home in Sydney?

Sydney has plenty of character homes, from Federation cottages to mid-century brick homes. Renovating rather than rebuilding can preserve what makes t...

Pool and Deck Design: How to Plan the Perfect Outdoor Living Space for Your Sydney Home

For many Australians, the backyard is where life happens. Summer barbecues, weekend swims and long evenings outdoors are all part of the lifestyle, ...

Is Solar Pool Heating Worth It? What Sydney Homeowners Should Know

There's nothing quite like a backyard pool on a hot Sydney day. But once autumn rolls in, many pools sit unused for months because the water is simp...

Planning a Luxury House Move: A Week-by-Week Timeline for Prestige Sydney Homes

Selling or buying a prestige home is a major milestone. Whether it's a waterfront residence in Birchgrove, a grand Federation home in Haberfield or ...

Downsizing or Upgrading Your Caravan? Here's How to Sell It Without the Hassle

Selling a caravan can feel like a major task, especially when you are unsure about its value, paperwork, or how to find a buyer. Whether you are dow...

The Best Overseas Adventure Holidays for Australians Who Love the Outdoors

Australia offers no shortage of incredible outdoor experiences, but sometimes the best way to satisfy your sense of adventure is to head overseas. A...

Cape Town Wine Shuttle: Winelands Tasting & Tours

Embark on an unforgettable journey through the picturesque Cape Winelands, where world-class wines and breathtaking scenery await. Our Cape Town Win...

Metal Fabrication: Choosing Metal Fabrication Melbourne Services for Custom Projects

What Modern Metal Fabrication Involves From individual components to complete structures, metal fabrication brings together processes such as desig...

Why Giant Rats Tail Grass Keeps Coming Back After Spraying

Giant Rats Tail Grass (GRT) is one of the most frustrating pasture weeds for farmers and lifestyle property owners. You spray an infested area, see th...

When Custom Cardboard Boxes Make Sense for Your Business

Custom cardboard boxes can be useful when a standard carton does not fit a product, packing method or presentation requirement particularly well. A ...

Full-Height vs. Pop-Top Caravan: Which Is Better for Family Travel across WA?

A pop-top caravan is an excellent choice for travellers who want the comfort of a caravan without committing to a larger, bulkier setup. With a lowe...

Bottle Label Printing: Key Factors for a Professional Finish

Why the Printing Method Matters When businesses need packaging or printed containers developed for a particular application, the right supplier can m...