Modern Australian
Men's Weekly

.

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right

  • Written by Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Official figures released Wednesday show the Australian economy growing at the slowest pace since the financial crisis.

GDP growth was only 0.5% for the June quarter, meaning that in the past year output grew by a feeble 1.4%.

The figures weren’t a surprise, but they do contain a message about what can go wrong.

Australia has enjoyed 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, in part due to good management, in part due to good luck, and in part due to happy accidents of timing.

Good management

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Australian prime minister Bob Hawke, honoured at Parliament House. Lukas Coch/AAP

Credit has to be paid to the economic reforms of the Hawke-Keating era. Labor doesn’t talk about that legacy much these days, but it was a remarkable period of transformation.

From floating the Australian dollar and financial deregulation to the accord with trade unions, tariff reductions, and privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Hawke and Keating opened Australia to the world, and the world to Australia.

Without those reforms the Australian economy would look more like those of Italy, Spain, or Portugal.

And although John Howard was no pushover as a politician, he deserves credit for voting for economic reforms he believed in, even if Labor got the credit for implementing them.

Read more: Hawke was our larrikin, but also our reformer

It is worth remembering that there was a time, not so long ago, when politicians put country before party.

Good luck

We’ve also had some pretty good luck as a country. The most obvious piece of luck has been the economic awakening of China.

To have a billion people on our doorstep rapidly and radically transitioning from subsistence farming to sophisticated manufacturing and commerce, hungry for natural resources, sure helped.

Perhaps less obvious has been the rising importance of globally relevant cities around the world.

In his wonderful book, The Triumph of the City, Harvard economics professor Ed Glaeser chronicles how, as he puts it, “cities magnify humanity’s strengths”.

Modern cities, thanks in part to information technology, spur innovation like never before. They bring talent together, serve as a cradle for entrepreneurship, and provide a vehicle for socioeconomic mobility.

Australia, as a highly urbanised country with two globally relevant cities in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as several other very important cities, has benefited from the triumph of the city more than most countries.

Great timing

But perhaps the greatest piece of good luck we’ve had was timing.

We now know that we live in a low-growth, low-inflation world, known as a secular-stagnation world. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says we might have been in one for many years but failed to notice.

In Summers’s telling, secular stagnation was masked in the United States by a massive housing bubble. In Australia it was masked by a housing bubble and a once-in-a century mining boom.

But more to the point, as housing and mining waxed and waned – as these things tend to do – one always seemed to be doing well just as the other was struggling, as the following chart shows:

Helpfully out of sync. Growth in mining output and property prices

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Source: ABS So, not only have we had a “China boom”, we’ve also had a “China hedge”: a source of economic growth not fully synced with, and at times offsetting, housing booms and busts. What’s next? In eulogising his brother Robert, Edward Kennedy quoted from a speech his brother gave in South Africa in 1966, in which he said: Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely beyond our control. It is the shaping impulse of America that neither fate nor nature nor the irresistible tides of history, but the work of our own hands, matched to reason and principle, that will determine our destiny. There is pride in that, even arrogance, but there is also experience and truth. In any event, it is the only way we can live. The same might be said of Australia. We want to believe our national destiny will be shaped by good work, rather than good luck. For that to be the case, we will need to have some hard discussions about the what government can and should do in the new low growth, low inflation secular-stagnation world. This is Richard Holden’s 200th article for The Conversation.

Authors: Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Read more http://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sure-economic-growth-is-low-but-think-about-whats-gone-right-122973

How Professional Cleaning Improves Indoor Air Quality

Indoor air quality (IAQ) plays a crucial role in our health, comfort, and overall wellbeing. Australians spend nearly 90% of their time indoors-at hom...

Solar and Solar Battery Systems: Powering Smarter Homes in Victoria

As energy prices continue to rise and sustainability becomes a priority for Australian homeowners, more families are investing in Solar and Solar Ba...

Plumbing Emergency Melbourne: What to Do When Every Minute Counts

A sudden plumbing issue can quickly turn into a major disaster if not handled promptly. From burst pipes and overflowing toilets to leaking gas line...

Why Older Melbourne Homes Require Detailed Building & Pest Inspections

Older homes make up a large part of Melbourne’s housing stock. Victorian terraces, Edwardian houses, Californian bungalows, and post-war brick hom...

7 Essential Tips for Choosing Reliable Moving Services in Perth

Moving to a new home or office can be exciting, but it also comes with stress, planning, and plenty of decisions. One of the most important choices yo...

How to Find the Best Real Estate Agent Near You on the Central Coast

Choosing the right real estate agent can make a major difference to your final sale price, days on market, and overall experience. The Central Coast...

Unlock Durability And Beauty With Burnt Timber Cladding Solutions

Imagine a home or commercial space that not only stands the test of time but also tells a story through its very facade. In the world of architectur...

Offroad Caravans: Built for Adventure Beyond the Beaten Track

Australia’s vast and varied landscapes invite travellers to explore far beyond sealed roads and crowded parks. Offroad caravans are purpose-built ...

The Expert's Guide to Understanding Large Bore Steel Pipe Specifications

When it comes to infrastructure, construction, and various industrial applications, the choice of materials is paramount. Among the options availabl...

Preparing for Your First Trip to San Francisco in 2026

San Francisco has long occupied a particular place in the Australian imagination. It is compact yet complex, progressive but historic, and visually st...

Modern Office Painting in Australia - It's the Real Game Changer

Walk into any modern Australian office today and you'll be struck by the fact it's a whole different beast from the ones we grew up with. Gone are t...

How to Choose the Right Suburb for Your Lifestyle

Choosing the right suburb is one of the most important decisions you’ll make when buying or renting a home. Beyond the property itself, the suburb...

Considering Cryolipolysis Fat Freezing? Here’s What You Need to Know

Body confidence can shift over time, and sometimes even good diet and training can still leave a stubborn area of fat that won’t budge. If you’r...

From Local Tradie to Digital Leader: The Strategy Behind Auto Gate Guys Sydney’s Growth

For many small trade businesses, digital marketing still feels like a buzzword, not a necessity. They rely on word-of-mouth referrals, repeat clients...

Electric Automation System: Smarter Control for Modern Electrical Infrastructure

Modern buildings and industrial facilities are increasingly dependent on intelligent control and efficiency. An electric automation system brings t...

The Damp Truth: Why Your Overflowing Gutters Are an Open Invitation for Termites

When it comes to protecting your home, most people think about visible threats — storm damage, cracked tiles, break-ins. But one of the most destruc...

Is Your Inventory a Sitting Duck? 2 Critical Upgrades to Protect Your Business Assets and Your Bottom Line

Imagine this: you finish a long day on the job, lock up your tools, materials, and work vehicle in the garage, and head home. But overnight, someone b...

Electrician in Melbourne: Reliable Electrical Solutions for Homes and Businesses

Finding a dependable electrician Melbourne is essential when safety, efficiency, and long-term performance matter. Electrical systems form the back...