Electric trucks are finally ready for prime time. Could high oil prices speed up the shift?

For years, long-range electric trucks seemed impossible. But much has changed in a short time. Rapid improvements to batteries and chargers mean battery electric trucks are already viable for urban and short-range trucks. In December, battery-electric and hybrid trucks outsold conventional trucks in China for the first time.

Australia relies heavily on road freight. Trucks move more than 250 billion tonne-kilometres of goods each year. Most run on diesel, which has to be imported.

That’s now become a problem. The war on Iran has triggered spiking oil prices and warnings of fuel shortages. Trucking goods will get more expensive, pushing up the cost of food, consumer products and construction materials.

For trucking fleet managers, this is both crisis and opportunity. Some will wonder whether it’s time to go from trialling electric trucks to deployment. Cheaper running costs are one drawcard for going electric – but there are others. As a manager involved in a trial told the ABC:

I was sceptical at the start. I still love proper diesel trucks. But this thing was light years ahead. It was significantly faster uphill, kept up with traffic easily, and the torque delivery was immediate.

What’s wrong with diesel?

Until the 1960s, most of Australia’s freight was carried by train. After that, trucking started to take over.

These days, diesel trucks dominate due to their high power, long range and quick refuelling.

Diesel for many heavy trucks is even subsidised through the government’s Fuel Tax Credit Scheme. This costs the public purse more than A$10 billion a year and acts as a barrier to cleaner options.

The problem is, diesel trucks are a big contributor to transport emissions, which will soon be Australia’s largest source of emissions. Air pollution from diesel costs us around $6.2 billion a year. Australia imports almost all its liquid fuels, exposing the freight sector to volatile global oil markets.

Australian diesel prices closely follow the international benchmark of Brent crude. Diesel typically trades at a premium of A$14-28 per barrel above crude.

Are electric trucks ready for the job?

New heavy-duty electric trucks can travel 400–500 kilometres on a single charge, making them suitable for many regional freight routes and long distance corridors. Some models have battery warranties good for 1.5 million km, or aerodynamic performance much better than diesel.

The new megawatt charging standard can charge large truck batteries in roughly 30–60 minutes. This is compatible with the rest breaks long-haul drivers are required to take.

Battery swapping is also gaining traction. Instead of waiting for a truck to recharge, the depleted battery can be switched for a fully charged one in just a few minutes.

China is leading the shift to electric freight, deploying large numbers of trucks and dedicated charging infrastructure along major logistics corridors. More than 200,000 are sold each year in China.

More expensive to buy, much cheaper to run

Electric trucks are more expensive to buy. The real attraction is in their cheaper running costs. Consider a simplified example of a medium-duty delivery truck.

To drive 100km, a diesel truck would burn roughly 35 litres of diesel, depending on vehicle size, load and driving conditions. At about $2.30 per litre this week, that’s roughly $80.

To go the same distance, an equivalent electric truck uses an average of 130 kilowatt-hours. At a commercial rate of 30 cents per kWh, that’s about $39 – roughly half the cost of diesel.

For truck fleets travelling tens of thousands of kilometres each year, those savings can add up quickly – even before the lower maintenance costs that come with much simpler engines. Analyst David Leitch estimates going electric for trucks on the Melbourne-Sydney route could be financially worthwhile in 2–4 years.

What are the barriers?

Electric trucks cost roughly 1.3–2.4 times the price of a diesel equivalent, due largely to battery costs. This gap is closing. Prices have fallen 50% over the past five years.

Heavy trucks have to be charged at extremely high power – often hundreds of kilowatts or even megawatts. This means truck depots and freight corridors will need major electrical upgrades. Dedicated truck-charging hubs are starting to be announced along major freight routes.

The charging issue creates a familiar chicken-and-egg problem. Fleet operators are reluctant to commit if there aren’t enough chargers, while investors are unwilling to build large charging hubs until more trucks are on the road.

Government co-funding is beginning to bridge the gap. New incentives, clear emissions standards and infrastructure planning can help accelerate adoption of electric trucks – just as they have for electric cars.

What happened to hydrogen trucks?

Until recently, many analysts expected long-range fast-refuelling hydrogen fuel cell trucks would dominate long-distance freight.

But the landscape has shifted quickly. Battery technology has improved rapidly, while hydrogen has largely stalled amid high production costs, limited infrastructure and energy-efficiency issues.

Many experts now believe hydrogen’s role will be more limited.

This is part of a broader transport trend. Direct electrification is often proving simpler and more energy-efficient than producing alternative fuels.