why Farrer is a key test for One Nation vs the Coalition

The Farrer by-election on May 9 will be a major test for new Liberal leader Angus Taylor and new Nationals leader Matt Canavan, as well as a real-time measure of One Nation’s surging poll numbers.

One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe are considered the early frontrunners in the fight for Farrer.

The contest, in the seat vacated by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, comes one year after the re-election of the Albanese government.

With no chance of winning this conservative regional seat in southern New South Wales, Labor is not fielding a candidate.

This week’s podcast comes from Albury, the largest centre in the sprawling electorate, for an early look at the campaign. To get a sense of the issues shaping the race so far, we spoke to:

• Anthony Bunn, a senior journalist with the local Border Mail newspaper

• Matt Canavan, who was campaigning in Albury just two days after becoming the Nationals’ leader, supporting local candidate Brad Robertson

• One Nation’s candidate David Farley, an agribusinessman and former Nationals member

• high-profile independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, a high school teacher, who is running a second time after winning 20% of the primary vote in 2025

• and Justin Clancy, the Liberal state member for Albury and deputy opposition leader in NSW, shortly before the Liberals selected their candidate.

The Liberals’ candidate has now been announced as lawyer from the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service, Raissa Butkowski, an Albury City councillor. Opposition leader Angus Taylor was in Farrer on Monday to launch her campaign.

The big issues in Farrer

Journalist Anthony Bunn described the vast area covered by Farrer and the key local issues so far.

It’s a big electorate, it spreads from Albury right along to Wentworth in the west and then up to Griffith.

[…] The big issue in Albury [which is just over the Murray from Wodonga] is the hospital. There’s been a promise for an upgraded hospital in Albury [… People] feel that they’ve been short changed by the [NSW and Victorian] governments and had hoped for some Commonwealth intervention to sort of assist them in the campaign to get a greenfield hospital.

Further afield it’s primarily a lot more agricultural and the big issue has been water there and how it’s integrated into the community in relation to water and the environment, and the trade-offs that there are with the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.

Bunn said petrol prices and supplies could also feed into a cost-of-living campaign.

Canavan on ‘tackling a mate’ in Barnaby Joyce

Asked about Farrer voters who might be tempted to defect from a Coalition vote to One Nation, new Nationals leader Matt Canavan said:

I understand why people have been frustrated with our political movement. I have been very frustrated with my Liberal and National Party movement […] And we did lose our way in the last few years. We were perhaps chasing short-term political gains at the long-term cost of focusing on what’s important for Australia. But I’m very confident now, with the elevation of Angus Taylor and myself, that we are back.

On the competition in the seat with One Nation, Canavan opened up about about going up against his former boss and colleague Barnaby Joyce – who he’d just spoken to that morning – despite Joyce “being on a different football team now”.

None of it is personal. It is serious though, because it’s the future of our country. So I’m not going to pull my punches. I will defend our own political movement. I’ll defend why I think Brad Robertson is the best candidate here for Farrer. And I’ll point out why I think a vote for One Nation is not going to deliver the results for the area.

[…] Barnaby will go down as one of the best Nationals leaders in our history. It’s just very sad and a shame, I think, what’s happened. But I don’t agree with his choice. That doesn’t mean we can’t be mates and share a beer. It just means I’m probably going to tackle him harder because he is a mate.

Agreeing to disagree with Pauline Hanson: Farley

One Nation’s David Farley was once a Nationals member, but felt his policy ideas were “totally ignored”. He said a lot of other locals feel “completely disenfranchised with the democracy at the moment and also with the Coalition”, which has always held Farrer.

Farley said he debated with his party’s leader Pauline Hanson when they met recently about various issues – including his support for immigration.

I’ve met Pauline Hanson and I spent last weekend in her company. And we debated a lot of issues. We debated immigration in particular, because I’m trying to win the seat of Farrer, which has historically grown on immigration. And we’ve virtually come to the agreement that what we need is quality policy on immigration that matches the demands and the aspirations of all Australians.

What we finally agreed on, even though we were disagreeing on a number of problems, but Pauline’s ultimate resolve is, ‘is it good for Australia, is good for Australians?’ And if the answer was yes, then it was ‘let’s do it’.

‘I’m not a teal’: Milthorpe

The high-profile independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe was once a Liberal voter, but said she became disillusioned over the years.

On opponents’ attacks calling her a “teal”, because she received funding via Climate 200, Milthorpe called the claim “lazy rhetoric”.

Look I think it’s laughable to be called a teal candidate when you’ve grown up in the country, lived in the country your whole life.

[…] I’m not a teal. I don’t have anything in common with the teal people in terms of upbringing and the people that I would represent.

[…] I think it’s really important that we understand that our farmers’ need to be, and our regional communities’ need to be, looking after the environment. And they do, because that’s where they get their money from […] We can’t rely solely on renewables, because the burden of renewables is mostly felt in regional communities. We need good balance there. So no, I’m not running on climate. I’m running on good policy.

No more Liberal navel-gazing: Clancy

Asked if voters would be annoyed to be facing a by-election now, and whether Sussan Ley’s departure will be a factor working against the Liberals, state MP Justin Clancy said:

I think certainly the timing of it is challenging in that regard. I think that will be a factor.

[…] Obviously new leadership both for the Liberals and the Nationals – Nationals only just the last few days – means that for the community they haven’t got a full sense of what leadership under Matt Canavan and Angus Taylor will look like. So no doubt that will have an impact.

[…] There needs to be clearly demonstration by Liberals, certainly at the federal level, that the time for staring at the navel, the time to be talking about self is well passed. That does not serve the party well, it does not serve the community well. We need to be absolutely focused on the needs of our community.