Oil refineries are catching fire in war or by accident. How does this worsen the energy crunch?
- Written by Meredith Primrose Jones, Researcher, Oceania Cyber Security Centre, RMIT University
Over the last two months, refineries and fuel storage facilities around the world have caught fire due to war (Russia) or accident (Australia, the United States, India and Mexico), adding more pressure to stressed oil and gas supply chains.
Global production of refined oil is normally around 100 million barrels a day. But this is under real strain. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in February, it prevented 25% of global seaborne oil exports leaving the region. Iran also responded to strikes by the United States and Israel by launching attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighbouring states.
Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries have driven Russian output 12% lower than last year’s figures.
But while the spate of accidental refinery fires around the world only affect a small percentage of global output, they amplify the impact of the bigger supply shocks flowing from the Iran war.
This year’s unprecedented energy crunch has exposed deep structural weaknesses in how the global oil system operates – and how easily it can be disrupted. Refineries have become targets in war, while poor maintenance or accidents point to systemic stresses.
How refineries became a target
This year, oil refineries have become targets in two wars. Refineries and energy infrastructure have been targeted in previous conflicts. But advances in drone technology and intelligence have made attacks cheaper and more effective. It’s now possible to hit specific distillation columns or fuel storage tanks within a refinery.
The Russia-Ukraine war is now well into its fourth year. Ukraine has relied heavily on drones for defence and, increasingly, attack. Successive drone strikes on Russia’s Black Sea Tuapse refinery have done significant damage. Earlier strikes hit refineries in Perm and Orsk.
One of Iran’s main targets has been the oil and gas infrastructure of neighbouring Gulf States. Missiles, shrapnel and drones have hit refineries, fuel storage facilities and oil tankers. Fuel exports from the world’s biggest oil and gas region have slowed to a trickle.
Ukraine and Iran’s attacks on oil infrastructure show oil assets are no longer just civilian infrastructure. They can be instruments of economic warfare. Attacks are designed not just to cause local damage, but to create wider market disruptions and trigger sustained economic pressure. For Ukraine, the goal is to weaken Russia, economically and strategically. For Iran, the goal is to exert influence over the region and drive up oil prices to pressure the US to negotiate.
Australia’s refinery fire points to fragility
Fire is a key vulnerability for refineries and fuel storage facilities.
In mid-April, a fire broke out at one of Australia’s two remaining refineries. The fire forced petrol production at Viva’s Geelong refinery to be cut to 60% of normal production and diesel and jet fuel production to be cut to 80% until repairs are complete.
The cut to domestic refining capacity was “a setback”, according to federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Australia faces a real challenge on fuel, given limited local capacity and a heavy reliance on imported liquid fuels from overseas refineries in Asia. Unfortunately, the fire in Geelong added to the strain on fuel due to already reduced supply.
Refineries under strain globally
Over the last two months, fires have damaged a number of oil refineries.
India: A fire broke out at India’s large new Pachpadra refinery a day before it was to open. Initial reports suggest a leaking valve was to blame.
Mexico: Two fires have broken out at the troubled Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco in recent weeks. The flagship state-owned refinery was meant to help Mexico cut dependence on fuel imports and boost energy sovereignty, but production targets have not been hit. The fires have worsened the situation.
United States: In March, a large explosion damaged the Valero Port Arthur Refinery in Texas, spreading toxic smoke throughout nearby communities.
A huge fire broke out at this oil refinery in Rajasthan, India in late April.Risk multipliers
This year’s spate of oil refinery fires have taken place as the world grapples with the much larger disruption caused by the US-Iran conflict.
These smaller incidents act as risk multipliers, amplifying the impact of the Iran war. The global energy system is already under pressure from geopolitical fragmentation, strained supply chains and contested shipping routes.
What they show is how vulnerable our energy systems are to disruption – even outside a war zone.
Aging infrastructure, reduced maintenance and increasingly complex systems mean even small fires or unit failures can escalate into significant supply disruptions.
During the first big oil shocks of the 1970s, the oil market was much less interconnected. Today’s oil system now has fewer backups and higher complexity, leaving it even more exposed to disruption, whether by accident or on purpose. Localised shocks can ripple further.
The 2026 energy crisis isn’t only a story about conflict in the Middle East. It’s also about a global energy system running on fumes. We should see news of a refinery fire not as an isolated industrial event – but as a sign of system under strain.
Authors: Meredith Primrose Jones, Researcher, Oceania Cyber Security Centre, RMIT University
