Local elections reveal the deep fracturing of UK politics and put the writing on the wall for Keir Starmer

Elections in England, Scotland and Wales have put further pressure on Sir Keir Starmer’s already troubled leadership of the United Kingdom’s Labour government.

These results are further evidence of significant trends in all liberal democracies – not least Australia.

First, they suggest the era of dominance by two major parties is coming to an end, if not already over. Support for the major parties is withering on the vine.

Second, the Greens have peeled young and Muslim voters from Labour, many of whom are dissatisfied with Starmer’s approach to the conflict in Gaza and its domestic spillovers.

Finally, nationalism had a good night. Scotland, Wales are all now governed by centre-left secessionist parties, albeit without majorities. The radical right populist Reform UK is ascendant in England.

Given the scale and significance of Labour’s losses, many will be tempted to push the eject button on Starmer’s leadership. An orderly transition to a new leader would be ideal for Labour.

However, the party will need a change of philosophy as much as a change of leader to overcome the deep structural problems facing all centrist parties in liberal democracies.

The fragmentation of Britain

Two voting blocs have solidified since Brexit: one is conservative; the other progressive.

However, there is significant contestation within these blocs. The progressive bloc is a coalition of urban, educated, younger voters and minorities (some of whom may be quite conservative on social issues).

Conversely, the right of British politics now exists in the “upside down” from the progressive side: these are older, less educated voters living in the shires.

Rarely do people from the two blocs meet in person, with the possible exception of Christmas dinner when inter-generational divides in political attitudes are given voice over roast beef/chestnut Wellington and Yorkshire pudding.

Importantly, the United Kingdom has shifted from a party system dominated by two main parties – Conservatives and Labour – into a multi-party system within a pluri-national polity. This makes governing more complex, and is partly the reason why Britain has become the “new Italy”, regularly ditching its leaders in a poll-driven attempt to address structural changes in British politics.

Labour and the Greens

In a similar result to the 2025 Australian election, the British Labour party won government in 2024 with a scoreline that flattered the victors. Labour won 411 out of 650 seats in the Westminster parliament; or 63% of the seats from 34% of the vote.

This has been described as a “loveless landslide”. True to form, Labour quickly set about alienating its own supporters, further weakening its already fragile electoral coalition. Admittedly, all centre-left governments tend to do this, but this alacrity with which this happened in Britain sets this Labour government apart.

The Greens have gained significant momentum over the past two years. Its membership has swelled, although many of these are disaffected Jeremy Corbyn supporters from the Labour left. How these newbies and older environmentalists will mix remains to be seen.

However, the Greens will be relishing some experience of local government to take with them into future elections.

The rise of Reform UK

Having suffered its worst ever election defeat in 2024, the venerable and adaptable Conservative Party has struggled to prevent its former voters – and many high profile politicians – from defecting to Reform UK.

Reform UK is now the ascendant right wing force in local government. It will take a lot of political momentum into the next UK-wide elections scheduled for 2029. It is not impossible that its high profile leader, Nigel Farage, may be the next UK prime minister.

The future of the United Kingdom

Labour lost Wales – where it had dominated for 100 years – to the notionally secessionist party, Plaid Cymru.

The Scottish National Party – similarly secessionist – defied political gravity to remain the largest party in Scotland for almost 20 years, even though Reform had its first major breakthrough into Scottish politics.

In England the picture was different: British nativism is ascendant in English politics. Hard-liners within Reform will be emboldened by seeming support for their anti-immigration policies.

The future of Sir Keir Starmer

All of this makes Starmer’s leadership more precarious than it was before (which was pretty shaky). There are several contenders to take Starmer’s place. Yet leaving aside how the electorate might take to yet another defenestration of a British prime minister, each prospective candidate is problematic in some way.

Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and so-called “King of the North” is not actually an MP; Angela Raynor has a potentially damaging tax investigation hanging over her head; Ed Miliband already lost an election as Labour leader in 2015; and Wes Streeting is not popular on the left of the party, or in his constituency for that matter, which he holds by a very slim margin.

Whoever becomes prime minister will have a difficult job on their hands. Reform is easy to determine but difficult to enact.

Major structural changes – such as building a new economy, or changing the first-past-the-post voting system – would be a good start, but will be far from easy. Voters will also need to be patient, but they will want to see evidence of the new direction that the insurgents are promising. Of course, there is no consensus either about what needs to change – more wind farms versus fewer immigrants – further complicating a fragmented political landscape.

But one result from the elections is clear: business-as-usual from the “grown-ups in the room” is not what this political moment requires.