New UFO files offer no answers – but something is happening in the skies
- Written by James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania
The US Government has released a new trove of documents on various cases of “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena” (UAPs) – many of which would have been described in the past as Unidentified Flying Objects or UFOs – including photos, videos and reports of unexplained events sighted in the sky and in space.
The files detail “unresolved cases” where “the government is unable to make a definitive determination on the nature of the observed phenomena”.
As a researcher of military strategy, national security, and weapons and technology capabilities, I find several examples of UAPs intriguing in what they reveal and the questions they raise.
Taking this new release together with other reports from the past few years, a picture of what might be behind UAPs – and the current state of our understanding – begins to emerge.
The easy ones
Not everything in the new release seems inexplicable. Some images, like those that appear to show unidentified lights recorded by astronauts from the surface of the Moon, are most likely just visual noise or other image artefacts.
Astronauts have also reported seeing bright lights with the naked eye. These may be flashes from high-energy cosmic rays, which are more prevalent outside Earth’s protective magnetic field.
Likewise, video recordings showing bright lights zipping may be explained by insects flying by the camera at close proximity – they would be out of focus, and appear to move at high speeds.
Something is happening
Other cases are more difficult to immediately dismiss. Some recent examples demonstrate that something is occurring, even if we do not know what.
In 2020, the US Navy declassified three videos recorded by F/A-18 Super Hornets, showing mysterious “Tic Tac” objects flying in ways that defy current understanding of technology, without any obvious propulsion. The US Navy stated it did not know what the objects were.
Advanced sensors on fighter aircraft detected and tracked these phenomena, which suggests they were some kind of real objects rather than due to equipment errors or erroneous noise.
One of the most intriguing recordings was shared in a US congressional hearing in 2025. It appeared to be recorded by an MQ-9 Reaper drone, which was tracking a UAP.
The drone fired a Hellfire missile at the object and appeared to have successfully hit it. The object seemed to be deflected from its direction of travel momentarily, suggesting it was a real physical thing, but it appeared to suffer no damage and continued on its course.
Drone swarms and mystery objects
Over the past decade, there have also been multiple reports of unidentified groups of UAPs around US and European military bases.
In several cases, US Navy Destroyers apparently met mysterious “drone swarms”. While these may have been conventional drones, there were no apparent launch vessels nearby which could have allowed these relatively small drones (with presumably short range) to be where they were.
We also know that in 2023, the US used an F-22 fighter to shoot down a Chinese high-altitude spy balloon over the continental US. Another similar incident occurred over Hawaii the same year, although the US reportedly did not consider this one to be from China.
Also in 2023, the US engaged several other objects over North America, but both the US and Canadian governments have refused to provide any information on what they were.
So what exactly are these objects?
There is no easy explanation for these incidents.
Some leap to the idea that non-human intelligences are at work. However, there is no evidence for this. It may be fun to think of aliens or interdimensional beings, but this is not really a satisfying answer to the UAP question.
Perhaps the “best” explanation we have is drones, or other known technologies. This still seems partial, as some phenomena seem to exceed current technological capabilities, and it leaves open the question of who is behind the phenomena.
New technologies could be responsible. Perhaps operated by “friendly” forces – within the US military or allied defence manufacturers – testing their products against unknowing military operators to see how they respond. Similarly, the incidents may be tests carried out by adversaries such as China.
But still, some incidents are hard to explain given what we know about physics. The object in the “Tic Tac” videos don’t seem to behave how any kind of aircraft should, showing no signs of propulsion.
Alternatively, some UAPs could be as simple as malfunctions in sensor systems. However, this too seems partial – there are multiple cases of warplanes and warships detecting these objects with multiple sensors operating on different frequencies, both actively and passively.
Not aliens, but what?
The most recent release from the US does little to answer the questions about what UAPs are. This lack of answers is perhaps the most intriguing part.
Given the wide range of cases, there is likely no single explanation for all of them. Some seem likely to be drones and others likely image artefacts, but there is a real group of genuinely hard-to-identify phenomena.
Of the available explanations, non-human intelligence is perhaps the most entertaining – but also by far the least probable. It is far more likely that the cause of these incidents will eventually be identified much closer to home.
What does seem clear is that governments are watching closely, and with significant concern.
Authors: James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania
