Modern Australian
Men's Weekly

.

A vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it's not everything

  • Written by Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia

The United Kingdom yesterday became the first country to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for widespread use. Following a review by the country’s drug regulator, the UK government announced it will begin rolling out the vaccine next week.

Other countries are likely to follow soon, authorising the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and possibly other leading candidates too. Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration says it’s continuing to assess the Pfizer/BioNTech data.

The world has been eagerly awaiting a COVID vaccine, touted since early in the pandemic as our best hope of returning to “normal”. A big part of this is the resumption of international travel.

Certainly, an effective vaccine brings this prospect much closer. But a vaccine alone won’t ensure a safe return to international travel. There are several other things Australia and other countries will need to consider.

International travel in the age of a COVID vaccine

When people are vaccinated before boarding a flight, we can have confidence there will be significantly less COVID risk associated with international travel. However, the data we have at the moment doesn’t tell us everything we need to know.

Let’s take the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as an example. They have reported the efficacy of their mRNA vaccine to be 95% in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, having tested it on around half of the 43,000 participants in their phase 3 trial (the other half received a placebo).

The vaccine appears to be safe with only mild side-effects in some participants. And notably, the study included people aged 65 and over and those with health conditions that put them at higher risk of more severe disease.

However, the study hasn’t officially reported the efficacy of the vaccine against becoming infected, as opposed to displaying symptoms. While it’s encouraging to know a vaccine stops people getting sick, this point is important because if people can still become infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), they may still be able to spread it.

Read more: Pfizer vaccine has just been approved: here's what the next few months will look like

Ugur Şahin, BioNTech’s cofounder and chief executive, believes the vaccine could reduce transmission by 50%. This puts something of a dampener on vaccination being the key to the safe resumption of international travel.

At this stage, we also don’t know how long immunity will last for those vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. But as the trial will continue for several more months, some of this data should become available in 2021.

A doctor or scientists fills a syringe from a vaccine vial. Over time, vaccine trials will reveal more data. Shutterstock

Not everyone will be vaccinated straight away, so we’ll still need quarantine

It’s going to take months — or, more realistically, years — to vaccinate everybody who wants to be vaccinated. It won’t be feasible to expect every single person travelling internationally to be vaccinated.

There are several countries that appear never to have had community transmission. As of November, these included many Pacific island nations such as Tonga, Kiribati, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa and Tuvalu.

Then there are countries that have COVID-19 under control with little, if any, community transmission. Examples include Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam and Singapore.

People arriving in Australia from these countries pose very little risk and should not need to quarantine, whether vaccinated or not. For other countries, it would very much depend on their epidemic situation at the time.

Some organisations have already developed COVID risk ratings for different countries or jurisdictions. For example, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) rates the COVID situation in each European country as “stable”, “of concern” or “of serious concern”.

These risk assessments are based on factors including each country’s 14-day COVID case notification rate, the proportion of tests coming back positive, and the rate of deaths.

Clearly, people from high-risk areas or countries will still need to quarantine on arrival, unless they have been vaccinated. It’s likely Australia will develop a similar rating system to the ECDC to streamline these decisions.

Read more: Worried about COVID risk on a flight? Here's what you can do to protect yourself — and how airlines can step up

Testing

Many countries now require a negative COVID test certificate before entry. For example, Spain requires a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours before travelling.

Similarly, some airlines, such as Emirates and Etihad, are mandating COVID testing before travel.

It would also make sense to have rapid antigen testing available at airport arrivals or border crossings. Although not as accurate as PCR tests, these tests would provide a second check that a traveller hasn’t incubated COVID-19 on the way to their destination.

Even with vaccination, testing will still be important, as vaccination doesn’t guarantee a passenger is not infected, or infectious.

A young woman sits in an airport, wearing a mask. COVID-19 has necessitated many changes to the way we travel. Nam Y. Huh/AP

Certificates and passports

Once COVID-19 vaccines become accessible, countries and airlines may well require visitors to produce a certificate of vaccination.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce has suggested all Qantas international passengers from next year would be required to have a COVID vaccination certificate.

There are also many groups around the world working on immunity passports and technologies to track travellers’ virus status.

For example, the International Air Transport Association is developing a digital health pass which will carry testing and vaccination status.

Read more: 5 ways we can prepare the public to accept a COVID-19 vaccine (saying it will be 'mandatory' isn't one)

It’s likely international travel will be allowed globally in the second half of next year, once vaccination is well underway.

It will be wonderful to be able to travel internationally again, but wherever we go — even with a vaccine — it will be some time before travel looks like it did before the pandemic.

Authors: Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia

Read more https://theconversation.com/a-vaccine-will-be-a-game-changer-for-international-travel-but-its-not-everything-151214

Refurbished iPads Are Better Than New Ones (Here's Why)

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Apple's refurbished iPad program has quietly become one of the best deals in tech. While everyone obsesses over the ...

Your Guide to Finding the Right GP: What Perth City Doctors Offer Today

Choosing a General Practitioner (GP) is one of the most important health decisions you’ll make. Luckily, Perth’s vibrant CBD now hosts a new ge...

Why Every Mining Operation Needs a Robust Safety Management System

Mining is one of the backbones of the Australian economy, particularly in Western Australia. Back in 2019-20, mining contributed 10.4% of Australia...

Australian Classic Literature Enjoys Resurgence

Welcome back to the good old days of storytelling! As the modern world becomes increasingly more demanding, returning to childhood favourites offers...

Building a Governance Model for Headless Content Management at Scale

Image by pch.vector on Freepik There's never been a better time to implement a headless content management system (CMS) to gain the flexibility and ...

Understanding Trade Insurance: Essential Protection for Businesses

Image by Drazen Zigic on Freepik In the current economic environment, trade insurance is an important element for companies trading both locally an...

Choosing the Right Timber for External Cladding

Timber cladding is one of those finishes that pulls double duty: it makes a building look warm and welcoming, and it quietly shields the frame from ...

Top Services Offered by Diesel Mechanics in Brisbane

Keeping a diesel vehicle running at its best takes more than the occasional oil change. When you invest in regular specialist care, you protect the ...

Top 5 Benefits of Hiring Professional House Removalists

Moving day should feel like the start of a new adventure, not the end of your patience. Yet once the settlement papers are signed and the champagne ...

Navigating the Digital Landscape: Managed IT Solutions and IT Services in Townsville

As technology advances at an unprecedented pace, companies must adapt to embrace the transformation ahead. With an evolving technology landscape, mana...

Types of Catering You Should Consider for Your Next Event

Choosing the right type of catering service can elevate your event from ordinary to unforgettable. Whether it’s an elegant wedding, corporate func...

Understanding the Benefits of Split System Installation for Your Home

Climate control is essential to maintaining comfort in your home, especially during the extreme temperatures that many regions face. Whether you’r...

Best Aluminium Window Sliding Designs for Natural Light and Airflow

Bringing natural light and airflow into a space is one of the most efficient ways to create a healthy and comfortable home. In Sydney and across Aus...

Maximising Operational Efficiency: Electric Winch Hire Australia and Hydraulic Power Pack Hire Solutions

Image by jcomp on Freepik From urban construction sites and remote mining operations to coastal maritime facilities, specialised equipment solutio...

Navigating the System: Your Guide to Support Finding Work with a Disability Around Melbourne

Image by freepik Finding the right job can be a challenge for anyone, but it can feel particularly daunting when you're also navigating life with a ...

Say Goodbye to Draughts and Hello to Savings: Your Guide to Perth Window Replacement

Image by prostooleh on Freepik Are your windows looking worse for wear? Are you paying a hefty power bill due to sneaky draughts and poor insulation...

How to Choose the Right Horse Trailer for Your Riding Needs

Many horse owners travel long distances for riding lessons, competitions, or to move horses between properties. Having a safe and reliable trailer i...

Sydney Turf Installer for Instant Green Lawns and Long-Term Performance

Having a green lawn at home makes everything look better. Whether it’s the front yard, backyard, or a small patch beside the driveway, people in S...