Should Australia join Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’? Here are 5 key points to consider

US President Donald Trump has announced the formation of his “Board of Peace”, inaugurating the second phase of his 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

The board has already caused controversy. Moreover, the implementation of the second phase is set to be more complex and problematic than the first phase that forged a very shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Australia has been invited to join the board. It has welcomed the advent of the board and second phase. But it has yet to state if it will accept the invitation. There are a number of issues for the Albanese government to consider here.

From the scant information available, the Board of Peace is to be chaired permanently by Trump, with a veto power. It is to be the ultimate decision-making authority in overseeing the application of the second phase.

Its initial members are largely made up of Trump loyalists, some of them well-known for their pro-Israel stance. In addition to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, they include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. It is not yet clear to what extent Israel has been consulted on the board or what its role will be.

Many Palestinians and their supporters distrust Blair for his “pro-Israeli” stance, which was evidenced when he headed the Quartet (comprised of the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations). The Quartet was set up in 2002 to mediate the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, but was abandoned as ineffective in 2012. Blair is also widely criticised for his role in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which left the country in a mess.

No Palestinian is appointed to the board at this stage, but invitations to join the board have gone out to about 60 countries, with a reported membership fee of US$1 million (A$1.49 million) for three years and US$1 billion (A$1.49 billion) for a permanent seat.

The board’s charter outlines its pre-eminence in resolving conflicts, with no mention of Gaza or a two-state solution. This has led some critics to claim Trump envisions the body to function as an alternative to the UN Security Council, given his opposition to the UN and other international organisations.

The Palestinians were not consulted about the board, which appears to be a “colonial solution” imposed on the Palestinians, negating their right to self-determination.

Five critical issues need to be addressed in the second phase of the peace plan: stabilisation, governance, demilitarisation, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and reconstruction. Each one appears highly problematic to achieve.

1. Stabilisation. No international peacekeeping force has yet been established. Neither the size nor the composition of the force is finalised. Washington has been in discussions with several countries, but none has fully committed and received Israel’s approval.

Israel has already objected to the participation of two Muslim countries, Turkey and Pakistan. The only Muslim state that has indicated a commitment is Indonesia. One of the significant tasks of the force is to create security and train a Palestinian police force for maintaining civil order.

2. Governance. In the realm of governance, a 15-member technocratic committee for administration of Gaza has been designated, with the former deputy minister of reconstruction and development of the Palestinian Authority, Ali Sha’ath, named as its head. Sha’ath is a trained civil engineer and well-experienced for the job. But the committee has not been fully formed, although some Gazan figures, who are not linked to Hamas, have been approached.

3. Demilitarisation. Demilitarising Gaza and Israeli withdrawal will be the most contentious items. Under the plan, Hamas is obliged to totally disarm, but the group has always said it would do so when an independent Palestinian state comes into existence. Yet the US and Israel want Hamas removed immediately from the scene.

In fact, the peace plan makes no mention of a “two-state solution” or linkage between Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians aspire to have as their future independent state. And Trump has said if Hamas refuses to disarm, there will be “hell to pay”.

4. Israeli withdrawal. Similarly, a thick cloud shrouds Israel’s position on total withdrawal from Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has never explicitly committed himself to a pullout. He has stressed Israel’s security and the need for its control of Gaza.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) still occupies 53–58% of the Strip, and since the start of the ceasefire, it has gained more territory beyond the designated yellow line, in repeated violations of the ceasefire. In the process, more than 450 Palestinians have been killed. Israel has blamed Hamas for killing three of its soldiers and for ceasefire breaches. It has also accused Hamas of deliberately delaying the return of the last hostage’s body, though it may be buried under rubble and might never be found.

5.Reconstruction. With Israel having dropped about 85,000 tons of bombs, destroying about 80% of Gaza, the task and cost of rebuilding the Strip will be gigantic.

An estimated US$70 billion (A$104.25 billion) is required, and as yet no country, including the oil-rich Arab states, has volunteered to make a substantial contribution. In the past, Trump has floated the idea of turning Gaza into a Middle East Riviera. Kushner, who is a favoured investor in the area and closely allied with some of the oil-rich Arab states, Saudi Arabia in particular, has mentioned the private sector could shoulder the heavy burden in this respect. However, nothing as yet is on the table.

Meanwhile, the two million displaced Gazans are in desperate need of food, shelter and health care, with more than one-third living in conditions of famine. The latest storms and floods have worsened their living conditions. Israel has not opened the Rafah crossing with Egypt, and has banned all humanitarian organisations that could ease the situation, including most importantly, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. The Gazans’ desperation is beyond description.

Having said all this, the fate of the peace plan is very much in the hands of the all-powerful Trump. The president has a lot of leverage over Netanyahu and Israel, given all the help he has provided to ensure their survival. He is also in a position to lean heavily on Hamas and the three mediators – Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – to ensure the success of the plan.

But whether he will do this or allow Netanyahu, whom he has praised as a “war leader” without whom Israel would not “exist”, to sink the plan in pursuit of realising his ambition of “Greater Israel”, is an open question.